BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
October 22, 2024
Yo Pit Crazies,
If you have been reading my daily missives in the OP Newsletter, you would get the feeling something big is about to happen. I am starting to notice that it sounds like all the madness surrounding Y2K way back yonder in 2000.
The year 2000 would tick and planes would fall out of the sky. It did not happen. Right now the agida over the 2024 Presidential Election is getting to Y2K proportions or worse. How can I tell? Of course you have to keep reading to find out but right now there is a trend in stocks that is not going away. A sample from the Pro Chat room:
Stocks are still going up.
I set up a post-Election trade and the market ran away from my call calendars. I will try again today. A calendar setup works well in this low volatility environment. It is also not a low volatility environment.
I will explain.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is at a 1 year high
I highlighted the 30 day implied volatility versus the 30 day historical volatility below. That VRP is normal when VIX is 12 and stocks are at all time highs, not VIX is 18 and stocks are at all time highs.
SPY 1 year chart with IV30 in red and HV30 in blue
That is the volatility market saying something is up and they want me to pay attention. Stay tuned for our special event where we turn that VRP into actionable trades.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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