Cool Planes, Cool Plan

You don’t need to be a pilot or an airplane buff to get goosebumps when the Blue Angels fly over.


They are truly amazing!


And the sound … just … goes right through you. 


I can’t imagine what it would be like in the cockpit.


My husband, Scott, is a private pilot. He flies a Cessna 182, a small, single-engine four-seater.


It isn’t anything fancy, but it does get us to my parents’ home in Arkansas in under three hours … as opposed to a nine-hour drive. I will take it!


We have flown to many air shows over the years, namely the famous EAA AirVenture Oshkosh

in Wisconsin.


AirVenture is such a big event that you can’t find a place to stay … so we pitched a tent under the wing!


We were never huge campers or anything, so when Scott’s hand was scratching the nylon tent I thought there was a mouse inside.


Scared the hell out of me in the middle of the night.


It can actually be dangerous flying into an event like that just because there are so many planes in the air. Amatuer pilots, as you might imagine, can be dangerous.


It is fun, though. I sure hope Mayor Lori Lightfoot doesn’t plan on canceling our Air and Water Show here in Chicago in August. Sadly it was canceled last summer due to Covid, and the talk is there’s no money in the budget for it in 2021.


Blue Angels flying over Lake Michigan in Chicago.


Every year we could see the U.S. Navy Blue Angels or the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds, they alternate years, practicing from our rooftop deck.


It was phenomenal.


We could also catch them out of our office building windows on LaSalle and Adams. I just love that sound!


Not sure why exactly, but our favorites were the Blue Angels.


Once, many years ago, after catching the air show in Kankakee, Ill, we were flying away and heard the Blue Angels talking on the radio. 


Scott said, “Hey! Nice show, Blue Angels!”


“There’s someone on this channel,” a voice said in reply. “We need to switch.”


Speaking of switching …


Keep reading for my trade idea in aerospace giant Lockheed Martin. 


Hit the Jets


How cool is this?



It’s a Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. Cool name, too.


All this airplane talk is due to the Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT) stock chart.


LMT is up 15% ($52) since March 12 when it traded $338. Friday the high was over $390.


I am seeing a doji candlestick formation on Friday which could be signaling an end to this straight uptrend.



A doji candle is formed at the end of a trend where the candle has a very small or nonexistent body and longer upper and lower shadows. 


This is formed when the buyers and sellers are being represented equally in the market. No one side has won out.


I will wait for a confirmation by an opening on today lower than $386.23.


I am looking for a quick move lower, so if LMT opens lower on Monday I will buy puts with an Apr16 expiration.



I would like to buy the Apr16 385 puts with an implied volatility of 14.83 and sell the 375 puts with an implied vol of 17.45.


I would pay up to $2.00 for this spread. With this spread expiring on Friday it will begin to decay very quickly, so I will need a move below $385 on Monday or Tuesday.


If this spread trades below $1.50 I will take my loss.


I will begin profit taking when the spread trades above $3.


Time to fly!


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!


Licia Leslie

Bill Gates Wants to Do What!?

Hey Shoppers,


Have you heard about this?


Bill Gates would like to “cool the earth” … so he has a plan to *checks notes* block or dim the sun.


Honestly, who do these people think they are? (And let’s not even talk about Bill Gates and “cool.”)


Yeah, he wants to create that nuclear winter they were afraid of in the 1980s.


Or simulate the way volcanic ash blocks the sun which, by the way, prohibits crops from growing.


This is accomplished by spraying particles in the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight in the hope of bringing down temperatures.


But Bill knows what’s best for the entire planet!


He’s like a real-life Clippy from old-school Microsoft Office — energetic and trying to be helpful, but it’s just not working out.


Gates is funding a research group at Harvard University that is exploring the concept, known as “solar engineering.”


The effort’s not-evil-sounding-at-all name: Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment, or SCoPEx. 


Scary stuff, I think.


My favorite argument against all this climate crisis fear-mongering is the fact that humans’ representation on the earth’s timeline is the size of a pinhead … and the length of time we’ve been actually recording any data is even smaller.


Do we need to take care of our planet and keep it clean? Absolutely!


But blocking the sun … our source of life, no way!!


A town in Sweden that had agreed to host a test balloon launch related to solar engineering recently pulled out.


Good for them!


Find somewhere else to spend your money, Bill Gates.


I am pretty sure you’re not surprised by my climate crisis opinion.


And, yes, I am lumping Gates in with the rest of Big Tech — too much power.


Blocking the sun literally sounds like a plan hatched by Superman nemesis Lex Luthor.


Yikes.

Let’s Trade!


I am going after Facebook  (Ticker: FB) again.


I was hugely wrong at $300, thinking FB was ready for a pull back. 


FB has since traded over $315. Take a look at the stock chart:



Thursday’s candlestick has formed a hanging man and Friday’s candlestick could be the confirmation by opening lower.


The hanging man is found at the top of an uptrend and could signal the end of that trend. It has a small body and a longer lower shadow which means the bulls are tiring.


I think FB could trade back down to $300-$305.


Looking at the options, I like the Apr16 expiration, which is Friday, so if I do not get the move I am looking for, I need to get out quickly.



I like buying the Apr16 310 puts with an implied volatility of 25.58 and selling the 300 puts with an implied vol of 27.64.


I would pay up to $2.40 for the $10 spread.


Like I said, if FB does not move my way — down — I will get out pretty quickly. If the spread trades down to $1.80, I will take my losses.


I would take my profits at the $3.50 level and higher.


My ebay (Ticker: EBAY) Apr16 62 puts are down a tad, but I am hanging onto them.


Have a great weekend and LET THE SUN SHINE IN!


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!

Licia Leslie

eBay Sales

Hey Shoppers,


Have you ever bought or sold anything on eBay (Ticker: EBAY)?


I have, just once — and that was so long ago.


It was a Maxfield Parrish print … I used to love those.


My girlfriends and I actually took a girls’ weekend to see his art show in Philadelphia. Very fun and that also seems so long ago. Damn …


Anyway, eBay has been around since 1995.


When I was in interior design school, they told us if we didn’t know what something was, like a piece of modern furniture, look it up on eBay, it will always be on there.


They have 185 million active buyers worldwide and 19 million sellers with 1.7 billion listings.


Of course it’s on there!


People sell all kinds of things on eBay and make money doing it.


Now eBay is introducing a new, quick and easy app to upload trading cards to sell on the site.


They are seeing huge demand in the trading card space, with sales up 142% in 2020. That’s 4 million more cards than in 2019.


Long ago my sister gave Grant this huge binder of baseball cards … it may be time to dig them out and start doing some research. 


Oh, yeah, Pokemon cards are also very popular and valuable. Grant still has his binder of those, too.



These things could all come in handy paying for that college tuition!


Or we can just make some money on my trade idea in eBay. More on that in just a minute …


eBay, Eh?


Did you know eBay (Ticker: EBAY) got its name from the Echo Bay Technology Company created by Pierre Omidyar.


According to interestinganswers.com:


  • The first thing sold on eBay was a broken laser pointer! Ha! Who bought that?

  • Magic potions, prayers and souls are banned on eBay.

  • The most expensive item ever sold on eBay was a 405-foot yacht for $168 million.


There is also a video of the ten weirdest things sold on eBay. I’ll let you look that one up. It’s worth it!


Now for Trading


Looking at the EBAY stock chart, I see a hanging man candlestick on Monday with an opening lower on Tuesday. 



This could be signaling a pull back from the recent uptrend that started on March 8.


Remember, a hanging man candlestick has a small real body and a longer lower shadow and looks like a man’s legs dangling.


It can be found at the top of an uptrend.


Looking at the options for EBAY:



I like the Apr16, with eleven days until expiration, 62.50 puts which are right at the money.


They are trading just over a dollar. I would pay up to $1.12 for these and I would just buy them outright, they are cheap and there really isn’t any other put worth selling against it.


I would cut my loss on these quickly, as they will begin to decay pretty rapidly if the stock does not trade lower. So I would sell and take my loss at $.75.


I would like to take profits on these at $1.75 and higher.


Reviewing My Last Trade Ideas


My last two trade ideas were put spreads in Home Depot (Ticker: HD) and Facebook (Ticker:  FB). 


WOW! Was I ever wrong!


I was looking for both stocks to trade lower but HD traded up more than $7 and FB traded up over $10!


BUT … since I did not get the confirmation with lower openings, I never put the trades on — so no money lost! 


Now, where are all those trading cards … Grant!!


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!


Licia Leslie

A Facebook Move on the Open

Hi Shoppers,


If you know me at all, you know I am NOT a fan of Facebook.


At the risk of sounding like an old curmudgeon, I just don’t get it.


I’m obviously in the minority when there are 1.82 billion daily active users who spend on average 38 minutes a day on Facebook.


Like I said, to each his own …


Let’s make some money in Facebook!


Looking at the Facebook (Ticker: FB) stock chart, Thursday’s candlestick has formed a doji.


Remember, a doji appears at the top or bottom of a trend and can signify the end of that trend.


The FB doji is at the top of an uptrend forming since March 9.



If FB opens today lower than Thursday’s close of $298.66, this will confirm the doji and FB will trade lower.


I like buying a put spread in the Apr16 cycle, which still has two weeks to go, but I will not be paying any extra premium for all that extra time. I don’t think I need it.



I like buying the Apr16 292.50 puts with an implied volatility of 28.04 and selling the 282.50 puts with an implied vol of 29.87.


I will pay $2.40-$2.45 for the Apr16 292.50/282.50 put spread.


I will take my loss if the spread trades down to $1.65. And I will take my profits as the spread begins to trade $3.55 and higher.


I think FB has the potential to trade back down to the $280 area where it traded just over a week ago.


Just don’t fall into that social media trap!


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!


Licia Leslie

Enjoy Your Family

Hi Shoppers,

 

My Dad always used to say, “You can pick your friends, you can pick your nose, but you can’t pick your friend’s nose.”

 

Whatever that means.

 

He just loved to tease us.

 

We do pick our friends and who we consider to be our family.

 

As I’m locked up in Covid quarantine, those folks — who we usually spend Easter with — mean more to me than ever!

 

Time to Trade

 

I’m looking at the Home Depot (Ticker: HD) stock chart … and it has come quite a long way in the last month.

 

As you can see, it has traded directly up from the March 5 low of $246.59 to at $307.75 on Thursday — less than a dollar off its all time high!

 

That’s up 25% in 19 trading days.

 

 

Shopper Alert: Thursday’s candlestick is also forming a hanging man.

 

Remember a hanging man candlestick occurs at the top of an uptrend and has a small body and long lower shadow. That means the stock traded lower during the interval which could signal the bulls are tiring.

 

I think HD could pull back a bit in the next two weeks, so I’m looking at a put spread in the Apr16 expiration cycle.

 

 

I like buying the Apr16 305 puts with an implied volatility of 17.39 and selling the Apr16 195 puts with an implied vol of 19.61.

 

I will pay $2.30 to $2.35 for the ten point put spread with two weeks to expire.

 

I will take my loss if the spread trades down to $1.50 and sell for profits $3.50 and higher.

 

Let’s Review

 

      • My Twitter (Ticker: TWTR) Apr16 63/69 call spread idea was, again, a good idea but the stock opened higher and I chose not to chase the spread. You would have had to pay more than $2.00 for it. I took a pass.
      • Remember my Taiwan Semiconductor (Ticker: TSM) trade idea of March 15th? I was going for the longer-term play, buying the Oct15 120 calls and selling the Apr16 130 calls. I put the spread on for $10.35 with the stock trading $118.30.

 

The stock traded down to $107.89 and those Apr16 130 calls traded down to $.60. I sold them at $2.15, so I should have bought them in and rolled into selling the May 130 calls.

 

Thursday those calls closed around $1.90 with the stock at $124.80. I need to watch these and buy them in to roll into the May calls.

 

Enjoy your long weekend AND your family! Happy Easter!

 

Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!

 

Licia Leslie

Today’s Culture Crisis

Hi Shoppers,


Have you heard about — and I can’t believe I’m writing this — these new “Satan Shoes?”


Only 665 have been released — at $1,018 each — and the inventory sold out in less than a minute.


The final pair, to total 666, is being given away by lottery on April 1.


April fools sounds about right.


The shoes are black “Nikes” with an upside down cross, a pentagram and red liquid in the sole, claiming to have a drop of human blood.


They also feature the unmistakable Nike swoosh.


But they aren’t Nikes.


And Nike is, predictably, suing.



The rapper, Lil Nas X, created the shoes in collaboration with the New York- based company MSCHF (pronounced Mischief), and they appear in the artist’s new music video for “Montero (Call Me by Your Name).”


You remember Lil Nas X, right?


He sang that super catchy “Old Town Road,” which apparently has given him a huge following among kids


Well his new video … is not for the kids!


Musicians have always seemed to push the envelope.


Elvis’s hips were, what, too sexy? They weren’t allowed to be shown while he performed on TV. (Must have been the MEN in charge! HA!)


Madonna was scandalous with her Sex book in 1992.


Marilyn Manson was considered a shock rocker and anti-religious for tearing up the Bible on MTV.


Don’t forget Ozzy Osbourne biting off the head of a bat live on stage!


They were all just riding the wave of marketing — and making a lot of money doing it.


I’m sorry, but I have to laugh at this whole Lil Nas X flap.


Maybe I wouldn’t if my son, Grant, were younger, but it’s funny to me.


I particularly enjoyed this tweet from someone else who grasped the absurdity …



OK, let’s get to trading …


Speaking of Vaguely Evil Culture …


My Twitter (Ticker: TWTR) options trade was a great idea — only the stock opened up too high to buy the spread where I wanted it.


I am still liking the TWTR stock chart though.


It has moved up from $61.26 to almost $65 closing yesterday at $62.99.


I think the stock can head back to the $70 range.



I like buying a call spread in the Arp16 expiration with 18 days left to trade.


I like buying the 63 calls, right at the money, with an implied volatility of 44.36 and selling the 69 calls with an implied volatility of 46.10.



I will pay $1.75-$1.80 for the 63/69 calls spread.


If the spread trades down to $1.15, I will take my losses. I’ll begin to take profits at the $2.90 and higher level.


When you think you’ve seen it all, you haven’t.


What is next?


There will always be another new scandalous culture crisis — and a new money-making trade!


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!


Licia Leslie

Twitter Bounce?


Hi Shoppers,


I hate to be the person grousing and complaining, but when it comes to both Congress and the “Tech Giants”I’m not sure which I can’t stand more!


Something needs to be done to wrest some of the power these monopolies wield — and hopefully Congress can figure it out.


That’s a big hopefully!


Now for Trading


Looking at the Twitter (Ticker: TWTR) stock chart I am seeing a hammer candlestick at the bottom of a downtrend …



The hammer, you may remember, can signify an end to a downtrend …


It has a small body and longer lower shadow, showing how the stock traded lower but the buyers took over at the end of the day.


The hammer candlestick is said to be “pounding out a base …”


And I think TWTR could trade up from here.


Looking at the options, I like buying the Apr16 expiration with 22 days left.



I like buying the Apr16 61.50 calls with an implied volatility of 42.06 and selling the Apr16 66.50 calls with a 44.35 implied volatility.


I would pay $1.50-$1.55 for the Apr16 61.50/66.50 call spread.


And I would take my loss if the spread begins to trade down to $1 and take my first profits up around $2.50 and higher.


Trade Recap

My Target (Ticker: TGT) Apr16 190/195 call spread traded up and over $3.50!


So I took half off at $2.50 and the second half off at $3.40 for a 96% win!


Unfortunately, PepsiCo (Ticker: PEP) had more pop left than I expected and my put spread didn’t work out as well. But that’s OK, I stuck to my trading plan and only lost 30% …


So, still a nice net win over two trades!


And the Test Is …


Positive! Yep, I have Covid19.


It is quarantine time for me for the next 10 to 14 days. That’s the biggest bummer.


Now I need to find out if I have the antibodies and can skip that vaccine.


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!


Licia Leslie

Your (Belated) Free Gift

Hi Shoppers,


I am so very sorry I missed everyone at Thursday’s big event!


From all I’ve heard, it was a huge success.


I caught some kind of bug that has held me down, so I am going for the Covid test today to find out …


But I didn’t even stay out past 11 p.m.! 


So, I will let  you know …


And if I do happen to have  Covid, can I skip the vaccine?


Gifts


The ENTIRE OP team (minus me) went live on Thursday.


Mark, Andrew, Griff, Frank (and a special crypto guest) covered SO MUCH ground — from ciphering trading charts to lucrative plays that leverage MASSIVE Fed spending for profit — 


Bottom line … attendees walked away better, more confident traders!


Now you can too!


Click here for the curated Option Pit Round Robin highlights!

 

My plan was to discuss my three favorite Japanese candlesticks and give you this free, quick reference guide below to print out, laminate and keep at your trading desk …


Email me and I’ll send you a signed copy. Ha!

Too Much Pop

Hey there Shoppers,


What are you up to on Thursday?


I’ll tell you!


You will be joining all of us here at Option Pit for our first ever Round Robin


ALL of our pros will be here, along with special guest, Greg Magadini, an expert on crypto land.


Here’s the schedule:

 

And there’s no cost to attend!


CLICK HERE TO CLAIM YOUR SPOT!

 

Too Much Pop in PEP


PepsiCo has moved $8.76 in four trading days. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but looking at the chart, I think it is too much, too fast.

 

 

I think PEP could experience a bit of a pullback — and I think it could happen soon.


Looking at the options, I will have to go with the Apr16 expiry due to the higher volumes and tighter markets, which make it easier to get filled on the spread.


Besides, the implied volatility is low enough to get us a great price on a put vertical. (A put vertical is buying one put strike & selling one different put strike at the same expiration.)

 

 

Trade Breakdown

 

        • I like buying the Apr16 139 puts with an implied volatility of 18.52 and selling the 134 puts with an IV of 20.82.
        • I will pay $1.50-$1.55 for this five-point spread with 25 days until expiration.
        • If the spread trades down below a dollar, I will sell it and take my loss.
        • I will begin to take profits when the spread trades $2.30 and higher.

If you must have a pop, try the Diet Dr. Pepper — but be sure not to spill it on the rug!


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!

 

Licia Leslie

Spring Has Sprung for Retail

Hey Shoppers,


Have you been to the mall lately?


WOW! Be careful because it is mobbed.


People are out and about — finally!!


I’ve scoured the retail stocks and the one I like is Target (Ticker: TGT).


Target had a huge move –almost 4.5% — on Friday, trading up $7.94, from $179.61 to closing near the high of the day at $188.30.


As you can see on the chart, it has broken out of a trading range it had been since March 9.



With this breakout, I think TGT is on its way back to trading $200.


Looking at the Apr16 call options, the strikes are in increments of five, instead of two and half, which limits my spread choices.


I could buy the five point call spread, 190/195, or the ten point spread, 190/200 for a dollar more.


I like buying the five point spread here because I’m spending less money for a likelier outcome — the stock will trade $195 before it trades $200.



The bid/ask spread is a bit wide, but they are trading, so the volume is there.


I would like to buy the 190/195 call spread and pay $1.40-$1.50.


I will sell this spread and take my loss once it trades below a dollar.


On the upside, I will begin to take profits when the spread is trading $2.50 and better.


As for going to the mall, at least I refrained from swimming in the fountain like my sister and I did when we were little.


Get out and shop!!


Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday!


Licia Leslie