I Read the News Second
Hi Traders. I can like a company all day long. It doesn't matter. I can like their story, their products, the CEO, the chart. If nobody else is putting money into it, it's not going to move, and I'm sitting there with dead money. That's the most valuable lesson I learned when I left the […]
The Junkiest Bonds Just Crossed a Line
Hey Traders, The bond selloff is chewing through everything except the biggest names in the index. Junk bonds, consumer staples and real estate can't catch a bid (nobody's stepping in to buy). The S&P 500 just sits there, because a handful of megacaps hold it up while sellers pick apart everything underneath. For a month […]
The Name I Would’ve Missed
Hi Traders, A stock gets crushed. It's down 40, 50, 60 percent, and then it climbs 10 percent from the low. Now you have to decide: is that the bottom, or a dead cat bounce (a short rally in a falling stock before it drops again)? On a chart, you can't tell. The bounce that […]
Anthropic’s IPO Isn’t for Us Either
Hi Traders. Three weeks ago I told you I tried to buy Anthropic at a $380 billion valuation and couldn't find a door I trusted. Since then, Reuters reported the listing has slid toward mid-October, and the prospectus should go public any day. The whisper number (the valuation insiders float before anything's official) sits at […]
The Chart I Watched While Warsh Talked
Hi Traders, Going into Wednesday, nobody knew what kind of Fed we had. I don't blame Warsh for that. He just got the job, and he told everyone from day one that he won't forecast his next move. He said it in June, he said it at Jackson Hole, and he said it again Wednesday, […]
No Matter Where You Go There You Are
Hey Traders, A quarter century ago, to the day, early on a beautiful fall morning, I hustled out of the American Stock Exchange. I trotted three blocks west on Albany St. over to West St. in downtown Manhattan. There were rumors on the trading floor that a plane hit one of the Twin Towers, which […]
My Anthropic Hunch Saved Me on May 11th
Hi Traders. Back in February, Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation. I saw the headline and wanted in. That happened right around the time I switched from OpenAI's model (ChatGPT) to Anthropic's (Claude). Claude beat ChatGPT in every way, and it wasn't close. While OpenAI had people making AI cat videos (hilarious, […]
Seven Percent, Every Midterm Year but One
Hi Traders, Saturday afternoon I was down to the last window and the last few cuts on a trim project. I marked 34 and a half inches for the top of the window, measured twice, and made one clean cut. Then I looked over at my pile… I'd already cut both short pieces. The one […]
Semiconductors were the ATM. That just ended.
Hi Traders, For the last few weeks, semiconductors were the market's ATM. Every time the market needed money somewhere else, it came out of the chips. That trade has run its course. This week gave me the tell. Volatility spiked short term, and what rotated during that move told the story. Most stocks sold off. […]
The ATM Is Still Dispensing
Hi traders, Semiconductors have become the ATM of this market. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) delivered years' worth of expected returns in two months. The money is walking out the door to fund whatever works next. The Magnificent Seven names are getting the same treatment. Hedge funds have been dumping big tech at the fastest pace […]