Should You Expect a Gas Dividend?
Hi Traders, I wrote you a full map: the consumer is staging a comeback, and the recovery is walking through the economy in paycheck order. Read it here: What If the Consumer Is Back? Short version: the war is ending, the war premium comes out of oil, and every dollar that doesn't go into the […]
One stock to ride, one group to run from
Hey Trader, On our May 14th State of the Market show, I argued the pain trade in stocks was up. Not down. With everyone certain semiconductors had run too far, the move that hurts the most people is the one that keeps going. Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner wrote that the stock pain trade still points […]
I’m live in 30 minutes
Dear Trader, I’m live with AG this morning at 10 AM Eastern, and you are going to want to be in the room. Earnings season just printed one of the strongest quarters in 20 years, but the index is climbing faster than the profits underneath it. Oil is collapsing on Iran peace chatter that may […]
Join me and Voz live this morning at 10 AM ET
Hey Trader, Tim here. I am hosting State of the Market this morning, and I wanted to personally invite you to jump in. Voz is joining me, and the format is going to be a good one. I am taking the macro chair, walking through what I am seeing in the Fed picture, the tape […]
Let the Rotation Begin
Hey Trader, Over the last six weeks, oil went from the DJ headlining the Volatility Rave Party to the bouncer at the door trying to get the last people out of the club. This seven-day short squeeze rally is coming to an end. As I so eloquently pointed out to the OP traders in Slack, […]
Why the VIX Yawned at Trump’s Blockade
Hey Trader. Something very impressive happened today. Once you know how to read the macro market signals underneath the headlines, you won’t get caught on the wrong side of these types of moves. We covered this in State of the Market this morning. Check it out if you didn’t catch the show. Over the weekend, […]
Reboot Update – The Invisible Bet Behind Every Trade You Make
Hey Trader, I want to give you an update on where I am with Reboot. But before I do, you need to understand just how crazy March was. This month, a tweet from Donald Trump moved stock market valuations more in one minute than Black Monday did during the 1987 crash. There were a handful […]
Stick a Fork in the High of WTI
The VIX futures curve flipped from backwardation to contango this morning. First time since the war started. I wrote about this being a primary signal for a "Traders Market." For the last month, the market was saying "I'm scared right now and I don't know when it ends." This morning, it said "The worst is […]
The Correlation Is Cracking
Hey Traders, I was on the State of the Market show this morning with Mark. If you missed it, watch the replay here. I want to expand on what I said on air because I think we're at an inflection point. Oil ripped 12 percent on Friday. One of the biggest single-day moves since the […]
JP Morgan’s 20 Billion dollar Petite Filet
How many “bad beats” does it take for something to become a “bad strategy”? JPMorgan’s Hedged Equity Fund (JHEQX) just had another rough quarterly roll. Some people called it a bad beat. I disagree. This is just a bad strategy. Mark agrees. He wrote about the messy mechanics yesterday. I want to ask a bigger […]