The Bitcoin Hater Is Buying
Hi Traders, I can't believe I'm writing this. Please don't tell my dad. Wednesday morning the Treasury said one sentence about the long end of the curve, and four markets moved on it. The department raised the ceiling on its long-end buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, starting September 9. Bonds […]
Tesla Again, Plus a Bank I’m Fading
Hi Traders, Best calls to buy this week: Tesla (TSLA), again! Wednesday earned it. The stock closed at $351.12, up 4.23 percent on 36.2 million shares against 27.9 million the session before. That's the highest close since July 22, and it broke a two-day slide. Tesla's Unfinished Business From July My price target is the […]
Records Up Top, 2007 Down Below
Yo Pit Crazies, The S&P 500 is sitting within one percent of a record high. The 30-year Treasury closed Monday at 5.31 percent, the highest since June 2007. That is two weeks running where the long end repriced and stocks refused to care. I have seen records set alongside high rates before. Most of the […]
The Beat That Got Punished
Dear Income traders, I've got two names on the screen this week pulling in opposite directions. One grew earnings 116 percent last quarter and got sold anyway. The other is the most popular product in crypto, running on a business model that hasn't changed since 2009. I want to own the first and stay well […]
Nobody Wanted the Best Quarter
Hi Traders, I run vol-adjusted returns on three clocks, one day, five day and 30 day, and I don't put much weight on any single one of them. The sign across all three is what I'm actually reading. Red on the day and green on the month is usually a winner catching its breath. Red […]
What Tesla Did After the Crash
Hi Traders, Both of my names this week come out of earnings reactions. One got hammered on July 23 and has spent three weeks grinding it back. The other got good news on August 3, ran for three days, then quit. The report itself matters less to me than what buyers do in the sessions […]
Cheap Groceries, Cheaper Stock
Yo Pit Crazies, The S&P 500 is printing all-time highs this week. On Wednesday the Treasury sold $42 billion of 10-year notes at 4.683 percent, the highest yield at a 10-year auction since 2007. And Washington just posted a $432 billion deficit for July, a record for the month and the biggest monthly shortfall since […]
Payrolls Missed By 100,000 Jobs
Hey Traders, Two down days in a row. Is that possible? If you're a bull, you're loving this. The S&P gave back about 25 points across Wednesday and Thursday, which is essentially nothing, and in exchange the VIX got absolutely smashed. The fear gauge closed near 15 on Thursday after trading as low as 14.83. […]
Down 19 Percent and I’m Interested
Dear Income traders, Two companies posted monster quarters this week. One got sold 19 percent in a single session. The other jumped 10 percent. Neither reaction had much to do with the quarter. When a tape gets this crowded, the print stops being the story and positioning becomes the story. One of these handed you […]
Record Close, Gravestone Candle
Hi Traders, The S&P 500 closed at a record Tuesday and the Dow cleared 54,000 for the first time ever. My screen says buyers ran out of room right at the top of my channel. So this week I'm trading both directions. I want puts on the index, and I want to own one of […]