Lightning in a Can
Yo Pit Crazies, I got my 3% off the bottom. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) dropped 1.5% on me first. Then traders got caught short into the weekend, fearing the worst in the Persian Gulf after the Houthis fired on Riyadh. The worst hasn't shown up as of this writing, SPY ripped 3%, […]
I Called Him a Drunken Sailor. I Take It Back.
Hey Income Traders, I spent most of this year griping about one company's AI tab. The CEO kept writing bigger checks, and I couldn't find the return anywhere. Then an app launched on September 8. Ten days later it sat on top of the App Store, ahead of ChatGPT, and I changed my mind on […]
Nike Hit a Decade Low. I Still Wouldn’t Touch It.
Hey Traders, Thursday looked rosy. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both climbed back above their 50-day moving averages (the average close of the last 50 sessions, a line plenty of fund managers watch). Many traders started hunting for a repeat of the face-ripping rally we saw in late July. It didn't happen. The S&P […]
Love the Wakeups
Hey Traders, The Fed hiked a quarter point Wednesday, and the new chair wouldn't commit to anything past it. So the market filled in the blank itself: futures now price two more hikes. Thursday gave us the first look at where money wants to go. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 reversed the sell-off fast. Crude […]
Which Dow Stock Has Another Leg Lower?
Hi Traders, On a day when the whole board turns red, I stop watching the index. I watch what still has a bid and what can't find one. Wednesday gave me that kind of day. The Fed hiked, the Dow lost 1.2% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.45%. Two charts stood out, and they're my […]
I Like These Jeans
Yo Pit Crazies, The Perfect Storm rolls in post-FOMC, and I've got two names lined up for it: one I want to buy and one I won't touch. Both came off Sibyl, my idea-flow tool that flags when a name inside one of my themes hits a good price. I keep the themes in my […]
Friday’s Rally Solved Nothing
Hey Traders, Friday's relief rally was a welcome sight for the bulls, but nothing actually got solved. Oil is still sky high, and I don't see a near-term fix for bringing it down. Brent sits above $104 and WTI is hanging right around $100. If you want to know what's happening in the economy, […]
Big Pharma Just Gave Me a Sell Signal
Hi Traders, Let's go with the puts in Merck (MRK) this week. The stock topped out on Aug. 25 at $156.92, an all-time high, and printed a harami candle the very next day. A harami is an inside day (the whole session's range fits inside the prior day's big candle) that shows up right after […]
Don’t Buy the Bounce
Hi traders, CPI came in firm and that settled it. The market is now pricing a 90 percent chance of a Fed rate hike next week. The selling we got over the last week was the market bracing for exactly this. All eyes are on the Fed now. And while it waits, the market’s digesting […]
The Monopoly Ended on Friday
Yo Pit Crazies, Way back when, I owned a piece of an exchange. Exchanges were member owned then: we bought seats, and the seat holders owned the place. My Pacific Exchange seat became Archipelago, then part of the NYSE in 2006, and ICE bought the whole thing in 2013. We got cash for our seats, […]