Apple Is Holding Up the Entire Nasdaq
Dear Trader, Chips just had their worst week since the April 2025 tariff meltdown, and nobody outside the semiconductor aisle seems to have noticed yet. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell almost 4 percent on Thursday, then kept sliding Friday. On the week it's down close to 9 percent. The chip gauge everybody watches now […]
The trade everyone crowded into (and the one I like instead)
Hi Traders, For the last few weeks, semiconductors were the market's ATM. Every time the market needed money somewhere else, it came out of the chips. That trade has run its course. This week gave me the tell. Volatility spiked short term, and what rotated during that move told the story. Most stocks sold off. […]
The AI Bottleneck Nobody Sees Yet
Dear Income traders, It’s time for one to love and one to leave… The Company That Connects the AI Boxes Dell (DELL) sells the GPU boxes, the raw chips that do the AI computing. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) owns what connects them. Once enterprises figure out the real bottleneck is moving data between servers, not […]
Happy Birthday, America
Hi everybody, it's Mark Sebastian, your only option. Before you fire up the grill this weekend, I wanted to send a quick note. Our country turns 250 years old, and that's a milestone worth pausing on. So from our whole team to you and yours, happy Fourth of July. I recorded a short message for […]
AMD Tripled. I’m Leaving It Anyway.
Hi traders, Semiconductors have become the ATM of this market. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) delivered years' worth of expected returns in two months. The money is walking out the door to fund whatever works next. The Magnificent Seven names are getting the same treatment. Hedge funds have been dumping big tech at the fastest pace […]
SpaceX just claimed a new victim
Yo Pit Crazies, The Iran conflict is still the on-again, off-again engine behind every oil spike out of the Persian Gulf. Funny thing: my whole options career has been fenced in by that neighborhood. From Gulf War I to today, a dust-up with Iran has always felt inevitable, and it always shoves energy prices around […]
Money Moved. It Didn’t Leave.
Hi Trader, Hannah and I had a blast on Thursday. If you missed the event, check out the replay. The S&P 500 popped out of the gate Thursday on the Micron (MU) earnings and a PCE inflation print (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge) that came in better than the market feared. But reality set in […]
One name to own, one to avoid
Here's the thing about the AI buildout: the people writing the checks and the people pouring the concrete aren't the same bet. This week handed us three clean signals on OpenAI, the biggest check-writer in the whole story. It's still losing money by the billions. It's stuck in a price war while cheaper models undercut […]
One Chip Name Cracked, One Biotech Healing
Semiconductors look like they've put in a top. Not every name, though. That's the whole story. When a sector takes a breather, the market doesn't sell the whole thing at once. It starts sorting. The strongest names keep the bid (buyers keep stepping in), the real earnings stories, the ones with a reason to own […]
One Stock to Buy, One to Dump
Hi Traders, Plenty of stinkers out there this week. The one I'd leave is Delta Air Lines (DAL). Delta is the biggest of the major U.S. airlines, run out of Atlanta with more than 1,300 planes and routes to over 300 cities. It even owns its own oil refinery. None of that matters right now: […]