Dollar-yen just had its two biggest days since July.
The yen jumped Wednesday, then jumped again Thursday, touching 155.28 to the dollar, its strongest level in a month.
You can see the exact minute the buying started:
I'm pretty sure Japan stepped in.
Nobody's confirming it, and plenty of desks think traders are just pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike on September 18.
Either way, the chart looks like every other yen rescue we've seen this year:
The yen pops, rallies for a day or two, then rolls right back over. Japan spent a record 15.4 trillion yen defending its currency between July 30 and August 26, and the yen still slid past 160 earlier this week before the latest jump.
Why I Watch the Yen Before I Watch the S&P
Here's why a currency 6,000 miles away matters to anyone holding US stocks. It's all about bonds and oil. Japan imports almost all of its energy, so a weak yen makes oil more expensive for them, and they need dollars to pay for it.
Where do the dollars come from? They sell US Treasuries. Yields go up, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 go down.
Now flip it. A stronger yen for a few days means less Treasury selling, which is exactly what we got Thursday: the 10-year eased back to about 4.76 percent, the S&P 500 jumped 1.06 percent to 7,747.71, and the Dow had its best day in a month.
I think this rally has a few more days in it. The S&P sits within about a percent of its record close, and if the yen holds this week's gains a little longer, we could see SPX threaten new all-time highs with real strength out of the Magnificent Seven (the megacap tech names that drive the index).
Then the yen rolls over and we do this dance again.
VIX closed at 14.32 on Thursday, a hair above its 2026 low. Straddles and strangles (option combos you buy when you expect a big move but don't know which way) are going to be way too cheap heading into next week.
One more thing before the picks: the Anthropic IPO is coming, and I'm going to trade it. You can learn how and join me by tapping here.
Robinhood's Kid Brother Just Got Paid
Robinhood (HOOD) went vertical Thursday, up 16.57% and leading the entire S&P 500.
Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Overweight with a 150 target on Tuesday, Scotiabank started coverage at 136 on Wednesday, and by Thursday it was the most traded name in the options market with calls outpacing puts two to one.
Robinhood isn't the only game in town, though. Under the radar, Webull (BULL) climbed about 7% to 9.62 on the same news cycle, and the order flow was pretty darn one sided: traders were buying calls.
The business backs it up.
Webull earned 12 cents a share last quarter against a three-cent estimate, has 28 million registered users, and the stock is up more than 40 percent in three months. I think it's an acquisition target, and even if nobody buys it, it can rally on little brother energy every time HOOD makes a headline.
Where the Money Runs From First
Nvidia (NVDA) blew the doors off earnings last week and has been on a serious run: 228.45 at Thursday's close, up roughly 13% in a month and within striking distance of its May record at 235.47.
If what I said above plays out, this is the name money jumps out of first. When the yen rolls over and yields tick back up, the biggest winners give it back fastest, and this one has come a long way in a month.
I wouldn't try to front-run the selling (get in ahead of it). But when it starts, I think NVDA makes a quick drop back to 210, roughly where it traded in the middle of August.
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