Hi Traders,

Most people bail on a stock after four straight losing days.

I start watching closer, especially when the selling stops at a level I've marked on my chart.

That happened Wednesday in one of the most talked-about stocks in the market, two days before a report Wall Street circles every quarter.

My other pick landed an analyst upgrade last Friday and still slid back into a bearish pattern, and that has me reaching for puts.

Worth a Second Look Thursday

I spy with my little eye a possible hammer candle in Tesla (TSLA).

That's a candle with a long lower tail, and it shows sellers shoved the stock down before buyers pushed it back up.

Tesla dropped four sessions in a row heading into Wednesday, sliding about seven percent from $380 to $352. On Wednesday it traded down right to the 50-day moving average (the stock's average closing price over the last 50 sessions) at $346.92 and bounced.

Wait for the confirmation Thursday: the stock opening and trading higher, above $354. Also watch for the relative strength index (RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from zero to 100) to move back above 50. The MACD (a second momentum indicator built from two moving averages) moves much slower and may still look a bit bearish.

Tesla's held up better than the rest of the car business, too. It finished September up about one percent while Ford lost 13 percent and GM dropped 11 percent.

Keep Friday on your radar. Tesla reports third-quarter deliveries that morning, and Wall Street's guesses run from 435,000 cars at Goldman Sachs to 482,000 at JPMorgan, so I want Thursday's confirmation in hand before that number drops.

If we don't get that confirmation and the stock starts trading below the 50-day moving average, you can ride puts down to the median line at $338.15. That's the center line of my pitchfork, a trendline tool that maps the channel a stock trades in.

Tesla's the car company everybody has an opinion about, and Elon Musk makes sure of that. It sells the Model 3, Model Y and Cybertruck, but it also builds Megapack batteries for power grids, runs Full Self-Driving software and keeps pushing the Cybercab and the Optimus robot.

Between July and August, exports out of its Shanghai factory jumped about 92 percent while sales inside China fell more than 20 percent.

Barclays thinks that export surge could push deliveries past Wall Street's estimate.

The Upgrade That Didn't Stick

I'm buying puts this week in 3M Company (MMM).

Check out the failed consolidation to the upside:

The stock broke out of that box range (a stretch where it traded sideways between the same highs and lows) to the downside. It now trades below both the 20-day moving average and the median line.

Last Friday, Bernstein upgraded 3M and the stock jumped 1.4 percent on the news. By Wednesday it had given nearly all of that back. When good news can't hold a stock up, I want to be on the other side of it.

Trading into the lower channel, it now has an 80 percent chance of reaching the bottom of this channel. The 200-day moving average sits just above there at $160.69, and that's my price target. The RSI has also moved below 50, another bearish signal.

For a tighter stop loss, use a close back above the 20-day moving average. For a looser one, use a close over the median line at $167.39.

You know 3M from the Post-it Notes and Scotch tape in your desk drawer. The company started in 1902 as Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing, which is where the three M's come from, and it's paid a dividend for more than 100 years straight.

Most of its money comes from stuff you never see, like industrial adhesives, safety gear and materials that go into cars and electronics.

Monday's Tiebreaker

I like Tesla if Thursday confirms the bounce off the 50-day, with a put plan down to $338.15 if it doesn't. On 3M, I'm buying puts toward $160.69 as long as it stays under the median line.

The rest of the team brought their own love and leave picks this week. On Monday at 10:30 AM ET, we pick the best option play out of the whole bunch on the Ticker Highlight Show Premium.

Tap this link to join us Monday.

Trade Accordingly,

Licia Leslie