Spot a Terrible Trading Indicator Just Like This

My favorite watering hole in Chicago is called Ceres Café.  It is a bar disguised as a diner in the Chicago Board of Trade Building. 

Ceres is famous for having quite possibly the stiffest drink in the country.  When I was on the floor, a lot of traders would head over there for ‘lunch’ and not return till about half an hour before the close of business. 

Typically these guys were in a MUCH better mood post lunch than they were beforehand.  It was also the best time to ask these guys for a favor if you needed to adjust your positions here or there.

Ceres has been a trader’s secret in the Chicago loop for YEARS!  But a couple of years ago things started to change.

A college kid, who we will call ‘Kid I’d Like to Strangle (KILS)’ wrote a review about it on yelp.  He stated that the drinks were stiff and CHEAP (both true). 

The next thing you know, I was sitting having drinks around 5 o’clock and all these hipsters, enrolled at local colleges, started showing up to drink.

GRRRRRRRRRR!!!!

Welp, I adjusted,  the key to Ceres was to leave by 5:30 if you didn’t want to deal with the college kid crowd.

Recently, Police SuperIntendent Eddy Johnson got fired for drinking there and lying about it.

Out came the local news to talk up Ceres and its famous stiff cheap drinks!

Needless to say, the bar has become even MORE crowded now,  and the owners raised the prices!!!

My precious trader hang out has kind of been taken from me!!

What Happened?

The secret got out of how good of a place Ceres is.  Enough people started coming that there is now a LOT more demand for the same supply.

Prices go up, space becomes more limited.  WHOMP WHOMP.  

The good news:  I still get done at 3:15 PM and can have a drink for an hour and relax.

The bad news:  it’s 25% more expensive (still a value) and if I don’t want to deal with crowds, I need to leave by 4:30 in the afternoon.

In the movie Top Gun, Maverick joked to Charlie (Kelly McGillis):  “I could tell you but I’d have to kill you.”

What happened to MY Ceres Café is why when word gets out that something is awesome it quickly becomes LESS awesome.

Which brings us to trading:

When people ask me if I will tell them what I trade, my answer is “No.’   But, I will show you HOW I trade.”

If I publish exactly what I trade to the world, pretty soon, the only person making money off my trades will be me, because the general public will piggyback me, creating what amounts to a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If I teach the world how I trade, hopefully the world will develop its own ideas, and thus I can create a rising tide.

The point is, if someone is willing to give you something for free, without asking for ANYTHING in return, it’s probably worth what you paid for it:  nothing.

Anything that actually makes dollars is going to cost you.  Most stuff you pay for is just regurgitated crap that won’t actually pay for itself.

The distinguishing eye, the individual that can separate the crap from the real is the one that is going to be successful.

So ask yourself this:  How can I tell if the guy selling me this indicator is full of $&@!? 

Actually, if you have to ask,  you probably know the answer.

Your Only Option,

Mark

PS  Keep your eyes out for a video from me later today.

PPS:  Next time I will discuss what news to watch on TV.

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