Hey There Income Hunter,

Today is the end of what has become the most sensible cycle in capital markets …

That is the monthly expiration cycle.

As option values continue to grow and the tail continues to wag the dog (option flow drives stock prices), then understanding the patterns of the expiration cycle becomes more important. 

The beauty of the expiration cycle is all the open interest in the “current” contract expires and dealer stock hedges are closed.

So as a new contract month develops, you see new open interest build at various strikes and get a feel for how overall customer flows evolve.

Then as open interest builds, the key as a trader is to find the inflection points that cause flows to accelerate.

That is where the quick easy money is made.

Today we’ll look at the OpEx cycles over the next few months and what we expect into the end of the year.

OpEx Cycles

The chart below shows monthly and quarterly OpEx dates …

Observations:

• Notice most of the extremes fall on either monthly or quarterly dates
• 2022 was a year of lower highs and lower lows
• Q1 was choppy, Q2 went straight down except for counter rally on May and June OpEx
• The Q2 rally failed at the .618 Fibonacci retracement, as did the Q3 rally (so far) 

My point here is this …

Instead of getting stressed by the noise each day … 

Step and trust a process of following a blueprint of cycles and cycle-ology, meaning investor psychology. 

That’s the power behind my Win the Week program that I debuted last night.

We will take advantage of other trader segment mistakes –  banks, dealers, retail and systems. The Fed and investor flows are the powerful flows that we can anticipate and go with.

What to Expect Into December

Looking at the chart above tells me we are making a new low in December.

2022 has been one of the worst years for financial assets in history. That’s a long time!

Now we go into tax selling season … 

So, you have to ask yourself … are investors going to step up and buy the dip? Or are they going to tax some losses and look forward to a better 2023? 

Bring It Home

I would like to thank everyone for joining the Win The Week event last night.

I’m very excited to make sure I keep my new members ahead of the crowd.

We are at a major turning point in the markets and the global economy …

Traders that have the ability to simply focus on the internal flows and cut out the noise will consistently make money.

That is what I am committed to … and I hope you all are, as well. 

Let’s get ready to have some fun, make consistent gains and take some home run swings along the way.

Live and Trade With Passion My Friends,

Griff