Gun to My Head, Here’s What I’m Buying

Garrett brought me on day one of Midterm Money Live this morning to read three charts, and he opened by asking if I share his excitement about the election.

You saw my face.

I side with Frank on this one.

All they care about comes down to getting reelected, and I don't trade a single line off of it. I trade the lines on the screen, so let me show you the three that matter this week, the two names I buy with a gun to my head, and why I plan to tune into day two tomorrow at 10 AM ET.

(To watch this morning's replay, tap this link.)

The semis took the wheel

For months, bonds and crude ran this market. Now SMH does. I watch the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as my number one indicator, and on Friday it printed a giant gap down (it opened well below Thursday's close and never filled the hole).

Back in the pit we lived by the rule of the gap. Hold a gap for a day, two, three days, and you take the next leg in that same direction. SMH has to close above 535 to 540 for any kind of recovery here. Hold the gap and I see it going to 500.

The Qs tell the same story. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) stopped dead this morning right at Friday's high, with a big old gap sitting above it. We need a close back into that gap to get any real rally going, and that means 703 to 704.

The Qs set that gap up into the Fed meeting. Price ran into the top of my pitchfork channel (parallel trend lines drawn off three pivot points) and the 50-day moving average at the same spot, honored that resistance, and gapped below. I'll admit I thought it went higher from there. Bull trap, and the gap led to another gap.

The S&P 500 doesn't look as ugly, mostly because the futures trade 23 hours and never printed that kind of hole. But intraday you can violate any level you want. The close decides everything. The futures have to close above 7,670, and I don't think they will today.

Deutsche Bank put out a note over the weekend calling for a V-shaped recovery. When you see that, you know they want to reel everyone in and sell it to them. As a pit trader, I stay suspicious of the banks. I can't believe anything they say.

Garrett asked what catalyst brings the buyers back. Honestly, I don't see one. Everybody leans on Apple's earnings, and I doubt that does it. Unemployment comes Friday, and I doubt that does it either. I agree with Voz. We get at least one more leg lower to shake it out, and then possibly the buyers step in.

One chart on the bright side: the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP). It presses against a little resistance and looks more bullish than the big indexes. Watch for a close over 221, and maybe it revisits the previous highs.

The two charts that held up on Friday

Garrett pushed me on it: gun to your head, what do you buy? Overall I still see another leg lower. But two charts held up, and I'll take them.

Tesla (TSLA) runs as its own animal. It carries a huge fan base, and whenever it dips, they come in and want to own it. It looked the strongest of anything on Friday, it looks good again today, and it keeps clearing the most recent highs. I like Tesla to 428.

IBM (IBM) makes two. Big Blue used to run one of the busiest pits on the CBOE, and now the options volume looks kind of sad. But the chart holds my median line (the center line of the pitchfork) perfectly, prints little spinning tops (small-bodied candles that show a pause before the next move), and gears up for a leg higher to close its gap. Buy calls, close them when you get paid, and roll. Don't go long term on it. The next level up sits at 271, and the stop comes on a close below 253.50.

On the election itself, I'll say one thing. The market hates uncertainty. Gridlock means fewer things happen, and that can turn bullish. Recounts in Michigan or Texas mean more volatility. Either way, we remain in the woods and I keep looking for that next leg.

For today, write this down. Watch SMH, or the Direxion Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL) if you want cheaper options. Watch what it does when it goes to close this morning's gap. If it fails to bounce from there on your five-minute chart, we go lower. Grab some puts. Intraday only.

Now, about tomorrow. Garrett runs day two of Midterm Money Live at 10 AM ET, right as the polls open, and the theme shifts from protect to discover. Today everyone told you what to get out of. Tomorrow the crew shows you where the money goes next.

Andrew sold out of his oil names at the highs last week, and he comes on to show where he moved that money. He named four groups on the call today. He hasn't said which one he likes most, and that comes tomorrow.

Tim Colby takes the other side of the whole room. Everyone on the call, me included, has an opinion on how this vote breaks. Tim brings a vote from two weeks ago in another country where the crowd had it just as sure, and he walks through what the crowded trades did when the count came in. If you hold anything the consensus likes, you want to hear that segment.

And Garrett has a checklist for the morning after. He wouldn't show it to me today.

The event costs nothing. Grab your seat here before 10 AM ET tomorrow, and bring your five-minute charts.

Thanks everyone. Let's make some money this week and be on the lookout for a trade.

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

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About the Author

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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