Why Calm Markets Aren’t Coming Back Anytime Soon
Yo Pit Crazies, Sixty-eight. That’s the total number of trading days in the entire history of the VIX where it closed below 10. Out of roughly 8,000 trading days since the index was created in 1993, the market has only been that calm 68 times. And 52 of them happened in a single year. I’ve […]
Stocks really moved this week
Yo Pit Crazies, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I start with my last forecast. If my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, tap our Glossary here. Last Week’s Big call for Apr 02 The Iran Conflict keeps going. Progress in the USA keeps going even if Tech Investors are bailing […]
Why I’m trading faster right now
Yo Pit Crazies, For all of my new subscribers to Market Action, welcome. What I do here almost every day is find a misunderstood part of the volatility and equity markets and use it to figure out what I want to do tomorrow. That tomorrow? Next Monday. This week flipped on us fast. We started […]
It almost happened!
Yo Pit Crazies, After a three percent rally on Tuesday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) found a way to get up another .75% to tickle 660. I figured last week we were at 660 before everyone believed the fake news and though the Persian Gulf situation was impossible. Late Wednesday, it looked less impossible but […]
What a quarter for stocks! Here is the next big thing.
Yo Pit Crazies, So just yesterday here, I said the bombing campaign in the Iran Conflict was just the start. We needed to see the Strait of Hormuz open up for a real volatility smack and market rally. That is the equivalent of sending in the troops in the old days. Not one day later […]
What if the starting point is wrong
Yo Pit Crazies, After the shellacking stocks took last week, traders went into the weekend hoping good news would set things straight. That happened for a while on Monday. It did not last. SPY 30 Day Chart The chart tells a story of a slow meltdown. That is not what happens historically when the USA […]
VIX Zone 4 Lockdown: Why I Expect SPY in the 630s Next Week
Yo Pit Crazies, AG's alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I start with my last forecast. If my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, tap our Glossary here. Last Week’s Big call for Mar 20 The big question here is the Trump Adm keeping folks guessing. What is the mission and […]
It Will Get Really Bad or Really Better
Yo Pit Crazies, I was explaining to my students in a class today how volatility works. I spent 15 years as a floor trader, so I have a pretty good understanding of what's going on. Option traders don't really pick a direction. They're more like a bookie who makes a line on a sporting event. […]
What Happens When AI Spend Meets Tight Credit
Yo Pit Crazies, For all the talk of the Iran conflict, higher interest rates, oil prices, and credit risk, stocks got battered by something nobody saw coming. Big tech is getting smacked, and but good. QQQ 3 Month Chart The Real Culprit Behind the QQQ Selloff The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the ETF that holds […]
The Trade I’ve Been Waiting For
Yo Pit Crazies, I would like to say today is different from any other day in March this year and in a way it is and one way it isn’t. Stocks had a tighter range than the expected move and there were more conflicting reports about what is going on in the Iran Conflict. That […]