Yo Pit Crazies,

After a three percent rally on Tuesday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) found a way to get up another .75% to tickle 660.

I figured last week we were at 660 before everyone believed the fake news and though the Persian Gulf situation was impossible.

Late Wednesday, it looked less impossible but we are still not back to 660 or 680 during the 1st week of March. The old saying of March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb is sort of true for stocks in 2026.

Back in early March, I noted VIX correctly predicted the Iran conflict by rising steadily since Christmas Eve despite SPY strength.

Still, we cannot hold below my VIX Danger Zone level.

24 is Zone 4

See below where we were at the start of the year.

VIX was in the high 14s and the slow build up in VIX was eerily similar to the flotilla building in the Persian Gulf. Note how VIX hovered around 24 for nearly a month.

Sometimes breaking above and sometimes below. It got away to close in the 30s only last week.

That means the market was worried a lot, prepared for the worst, but did not go all in freaking out.

VIX 3 month chart

For a more clear sign, I want to see us drop into the low 20s for VIX.

Zone 4 closes are still touchy and this market is thin and headline driven.

Will VIX Puts Pay?

My students made fun of me today since I started forecasting downside in VIX. I am looking at Jun puts in VIX and filled a bunch when whatever headlined knocked stocks back a bit late afternoon.

I feel this will be a big weekend in the future of the Persian Gulf. We will see if I am right. 15 seems a reasonable VIX low.

This is a decent time to pick up cheap stocks. I am currently tracking 152 stocks making 52 week lows. They likely will not stay there.

To get follow up intel and more, check out the Ceres Club at this link.

To Your Trading Success,

AG