This Indicator Is Flashing a Massive Warning Sign
Yo Pit Crazies, Today was a mostly inside day as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) got tired from my Perfect Storm rally. Some pundits say this is the lowest breadth market rally in years. One reason why is because a lot of industries have gas prices as a variable cost. Those costs are […]
The Perfect Storm Had a Perfect Outcome
Yo Pit Crazies, Last week I went live to explain why I thought the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) could moon 3% in a couple of days. The market was so on edge from oil prices and the AI Doomsday scenario that any good news, like the Fed saying things are rosy and not […]
I Got the Fed Wrong and My Trade Still Worked
Yo Pit Crazies, AG's alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I start with my last forecast… Last Week’s Big Call “I expect the FOMC to surprise and not cut. The issue is oil prices and a rate hike will not do much to change that. 10 year yields are near 5% […]
This Anthropic Road Show Is Going Horribly
Yo Pit Crazies, You know it's a slow day when SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) moves less than its own dividend. I'm blaming the whole thing on the Anthropic IPO. For those who don't know, SPY pays a dividend every quarter, and the latest one ran about $1.89. The dividend comes off the SPY […]
So We Got 3 Percent in 24 Hours, Now What?
Yo pit crazies, I called for a 3 percent move in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) around the Fed. I got it in about 24 hours, and I've got a read on what comes next. The setup at the start of the week looked grim: AI was going to eat us after Anthropic's […]
I Like These Jeans
Yo Pit Crazies, The Perfect Storm rolls in post-FOMC, and I've got two names lined up for it: one I want to buy and one I won't touch. Both came off Sibyl, my idea-flow tool that flags when a name inside one of my themes hits a good price. I keep the themes in my […]
Half the Move I Called, and It’s Not Over
Yo Pit Crazies, For all of the weekend angst over AI, the funniest has been from Sen Bernie Sanders: “AI is the new existential threat.” Not long ago, Climate Change was the existential threat Before that, the Ozone Layer, Killer Bee Swarms and Nuclear War. It reminds me of the Princess Bride: Inigo Montoya delivers […]
The Perfect Storm Is Brewing
Yo Pit Crazies, I wish I were better at AI. I'd build a boxing ring and drop Warsh and Trump in it like the old Knock-Your-Block-Off boxers. Warsh needs to prove he'll let rates float to wherever the market puts them. Trump and Bessent want them lower before the midterms. The FOMC (the Fed's rate-setting […]
AI CEO Says They Might Cause the End of the World
Yo Pit Crazies, We had a big talk at the Trader Meeting today in Option Pit trying to decipher what the heck happened this weekend and what did not happen on Monday. Somehow AI was going to eat us and poison us and there was a huge blowup on Social Media about it. I have […]
The Biggest Week of the Year
Yo Pit Crazies, AG's alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I start with my last forecast… Last Week’s Big Call “The big events of the coming week are inflation and the start of the Anthropic IPO hype. It was plain this week that Pres Trump isn’t going to deal with Iran […]