Yo Pit Crazies,
AG's alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis.
As usual, I start with my last forecast…
Last Week’s Big Call
“The big events of the coming week are inflation and the start of the Anthropic IPO hype. It was plain this week that Pres Trump isn’t going to deal with Iran now that the US Navy is nearly in control of it.
Goldman’s paid big bucks to get that stuff right. VIX likely hovers 14 for the week until the inflation number comes out. It will likely be in line as some of the cuts in spending in January will help.
Post inflation number stocks should make an all time high.”
Stocks closed on a positive note but not week highs.
VIX made a run to 18 on oil fears and hot PPI numbers.
The Anthropic IPO show got off to a slow start because some employee came out with some damning news.
As I write this, the “employee” was also affiliated with some left wing news outlet.
What to believe?
Who the heck knows but it did whack my Zoom Inc (ZM) position. It was like Opposite Week for me after the Labor Day weekend.
The Weekly Wrap Up
The story is still rates and those made 15 year highs this week.
The 10 year T-bill is near 5% and no one wants them. Oracle Corp (ORCL) put up huge numbers but the ORCL borrowing is giving investors pause. It’s giving me pause as I don’t want to own more than 100 shares of it. That’s really the crux of what’s going on.
AI growth and hiring is still running like crazy. And Big Tech, for the 1st time in history, is challenging Uncle Sam for $.
That’s the current stock market dynamic setup.
My guess is that Big Tech will find a way to make money on their investment.
That’s good for stocks.
PPI and CPI ran hot.
PPI on oil and compute demand which is ok. CPI on oil.
The oil should be temporary but the compute issue is sticking with us for a while. Lucky for us, demand for chips means lots of job growth.
Mini Rant
President Trump went from getting the US Gov out of welfare to giving every family $5,000 Stimmy Checks. He’s done this before, floating these balloons, and so far, except for COVID extravagance, he’s failed to deliver.
Add to that the Houthies taking some land by the Red Sea, albeit putting a big target on their back on the coast of Arabia, and we have a volatile brew for the week.
We have 535 Congressmen and none of them are looking to mind our tax dollars. Another week of dereliction of duty by both parties.
At least vacation keeps them from making things worse.
(Every Friday, The Options Insider Radio Network’s Vol Views offers bonus volatility insights with either Mark or myself, no charge!)
SPY daily price action over the last 30 days with one-day candles. SPY Sigma (volatility per term) for Sep, Oct, Nov
SPY made a down move early as traders got spooked on a week of mostly market negative news. Most of that was reversed when they figured out the bulk of the inflation issue was in oil.
SPY Realized Volatility snap on Sep 11, 2026
Here's what realized volatility means: It measures how much a stock actually moved over a specific time period. Think of it like checking your car's odometer after a road trip.
The odometer tells you how far you actually traveled, not how far you planned to go. High realized volatility means big price swings. When SPY has high realized volatility, the market is unstable and prone to sharp drops. When HV10 is under 10, stocks are not going anywhere.
Realized volatility is now under 12% for the last 30 days and under 9 for the last 20. With all of the mostly negative news, it can’t shake stocks out of the lower volatility environment. As crazy as it seems, we are in a lower Volatility environment with occasional pops.
VIX Volatility Curves
Closing VIX cash and curve Sep 11
Closing Curve Sep 04
The VIX curve is in contango with a two point higher close this week. The weekend effect plus the FOMC Meeting next week is pushing up VIX from year lows. This was a week with literally no good headline news except most earnings reports were positive.
That has been the 2026 trend.
(Check out Volatility 101 basics on our Option Pit YouTube channel, now streaming.)
OP VIX Zone Watch
VIX ZONE 1 9-13
VIX ZONE 2 13.01-17.99 We lived here
VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 We tickled here
VIX ZONE 4 24+
VIX kept jumping from the long weekend and peaked around 18 Thursday. The inflation beast was toast by Friday at 11 am. VIX coming from lows and not holding is generally bullish SPY. Zone 3 and above is when inflation is a real problem. And right now that is not the case.
VIX 30-day chart with one-minute candles
VIX made year lows Friday before Labor Day and made a 30 day highs Thursday.
For the most part it crashed to a “wait for the FOMC” level of 16.
The Big Call
I expect the FOMC to surprise and not cut.
The issue is oil prices and a rate hike will not do much to change that.
10 year yields are near 5% and Congress will have a hard time funding their fantasy world.
AI is a giant wealth generator and it is cutting across all areas. The build out is employing just about everyone except for people who do not want to work.
I think we moon launch to 785 SPY next week. Bookmark it. VIX to 14.5 but only for a tickle.
Tap this link to see how you can trade it next week.
To Your Trading Success,
Andrew