“Honey, I Think You Should Come Home… “
Yo Pit Crazies, I'd been married about three months. My cousin's wedding was a week or two out and I was the best man. Mostly we were thinking about the wedding and all the relatives about to flood the honeymoon roost my new wife and I owned at California and Baker in San Francisco, a […]
The Bond Market Has a $5,000 Problem
Yo Pit Crazies, One thing about President Trump, he keeps it interesting. This week he picked up the offensive in the Strait of Hormuz AND told reporters the Iran war will end right after the November election. That told the market he plans to stay the course. Volatility Central! Oil closed above $100 a barrel […]
This Always Happens Before a Big Number
Yo Pit Crazies, Oil is catching a bid again as traders line up to see what happens next in the Persian Gulf. Brent went through $100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time since July, and the President says crude won't come down until after the midterms. I think the market is ready to pull […]
The Drone Stock That Isn’t Buying the War
Yo Pit Crazies, If the war with Iran is back on, why is the top listed drone maker sitting near its low for the year? That question has been nagging at me. Over the weekend the U.S. hit three Iranian oil tankers, one of them right off Kharg Island, after Iran fired missiles at two […]
Where Stocks Land After the Inflation Print
Yo Pit Crazies, Before today’s Vol-Man… Happy Labor Day! I hope your weekend’s treated you well so far. AG's alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. Now with that out of the way… As usual, I start with my last forecast… Last Week’s Big Call I’m thinking of $775 SPY for a market going […]
The Two Things the Market Loves the Most
Yo Pit Crazies, Stocks rally on two things: big earnings growth and job growth. Job growth means people get paid, they spend, and companies earn more. That's why we traders care so much about the jobs number. Inflation is mostly a government problem. Washington misallocates money and prices go up. Growth is the opposite of […]
One Fed Guy Just Moved the Odds on Sep 11
Yo Pit Crazies, It takes one Fed guy to mess up the plot. This time it was Governor Waller, who said he'd support holding rates this month if the next two weeks of inflation data cooperate. Stocks read that and pushed the S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) up almost half a percent and option prices […]
Will Warsh Pound Stocks?
Yo Pit Crazies, Bond prices are hanging on for the moment. The job numbers came in a little light, and I think they'd look better if we kept cutting SNAP benefits. The program was $60 billion in 2019 and $127 billion today. With unemployment back near 4 percent, that seems a little ridiculous. That's the […]
The Bond Market Might Have Its Say Yet
Yo Pit Crazies, I didn't expect to see this one. Hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, also a hedge fund guy, are taking swings at each other in public. Druck used a Wall Street Journal op-ed to call Treasury's bond buying a mistake, and Bessent answered on CNBC Monday that his […]
The Donald Might Take Out an Island in the Strait
Yo Pit Crazies, This week is traditionally the last week of summer. I know it varies, but when I went to Cape Cod every summer (when my in-laws were alive), I remember Labor Day weekend as the last busy weekend of the summer. The place was jumping. Summer provides something a little different on Wall […]