Yo, Pit Crazies,
The last CPI number took the market by surprise.
The day before the number, VIX was 23 on its way lower.
By the end of day on Sept. 13, VIX crossed 28 and barely saw below that for a month.
VIX one-month chart with one-minute candles.
What do the VIX tea leaves say for this week?
Well … The PPI Comes Out First
A handy link for economic dates is here from Bloomberg.
Right now, the markets and the economists are expecting a lighter number, but still up month-to-month.
Core PPI (which excludes food and energy) is expected to be the same as last month.
Honestly, just keeping that the same feels like an improvement.
Vol Man highlighted the backwardation below, where VIX cash is over all the future values in what I call extreme backwardation.
VIX term structure on Oct. 10.
That means the S&P 500 will be very volatile over the next week.
The last cycle was expecting less volatility and got more.
This cycle is expecting the worst as we are as low as we have been all year –- totally erasing 2021 gains.
Oddly, I think it will get us a relief rally since the course for the Octoberrate cycle will be set.
PPI is out tomorrow. CPI on Thursday.
Let Licia Leslie help you trade the latter.
Exciting times!
The Rundown
Nitro Trader
Mark is staying warm this fall burnin’ coal in Peabody Energy Corp (Ticker: BTU) call flies for 77% gain.
Power Income Trader
Bill gave it a pounding yesterday in the CurrencyShares British Pound ETF (Ticker: FXB) put spreads for a 51% gain.
To Your Trading Success,
AG