Yo Pit Crazies,

Nine hundred eleven million shares came unlocked Thursday. The stock closed Friday up almost 16 percent.

That's not how a lockup expiration is supposed to go.

I post a lot in my live rooms, usually whatever I'm doing at that moment. SpaceX and the lockup coming off was my big topic this week. One of my favorite sayings: if a stock isn't going down, it's going up.

I expected a hangover Thursday. It never showed. By the open I was posting this:

Being Wrong for Zero Dollars

By then the stock was up $10 from my morning post. I told myself that if it tickled the edge of my fly, I was buying calls. It did, so I did.

Here's the part that matters: I was short into that move through a put butterfly (a spread that pays if the stock settles in a narrow zone and caps what you lose if it doesn't). I had the direction completely wrong, and because I'd written down what I'd do before the open, being wrong cost me nothing.

That's a good risk reward. I closed the call at twice what I paid.

Shorts Ate a 5 Billion Dollar Bill in one Session

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) has been the most crowded short on the tape. Ortex data cited by Reuters put roughly 196 million shares short in late July, about 31 percent of the free float. That's a bigger short book than Tesla's.

Ortex also pegs every one dollar move in the stock at more than $300 million of value swinging against those positions. Friday it closed up more than $18. Run that math and the shorts took a bill north of $5 billion in a single session.

Volume ran near double the one-month average of about 134 million shares.

That's covering, not conviction. Shorts sat waiting for the waterfall, the waterfall didn't come, and they stopped waiting.

The stock priced at $135 on June 11 and ran to $225.64 inside a week. Then it bled to $104.83. Friday it closed at $133.11, basically right back where it started.

Long-term holders clearly aren't in a rush to sell. The Tesla shareholders who never sold are probably why.

Musk Drops 100 Million Square Feet on Texas

All of that happened on light news. Or what looked like light news.

Elon Musk announced Terafab, a chip plant SpaceX will build with Tesla Inc (TSLA) in Grimes County, north of Houston.

The first check is $16.8 billion, and filings put the full four-phase build at $119 billion. Musk calls it the largest and most valuable building on Earth, roughly 50 times the size of the Pentagon.

It'll make chips for Optimus robots and Cybercabs, plus hardened chips for SpaceX's orbital data centers. The site search ran across Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada. California never made the list.

That's the whole SPCX story in one announcement. This valuation was never about this quarter's revenue. It's about what gets built, and the stock needed a jolt.

Mr. Musk rode to the rescue.

For the rest of us, a $119 billion fab is one more entry in the AI capex arms race that's already moving memory prices and power contracts. And a $1.6 trillion name now carries $300 million of short exposure per dollar of movement. That stops being an SPCX problem and starts being a market problem.

I've still got to work the short side. My put flies are 33 percent financed (a third of the cost already covered by premium I sold), so Monday I either buy a new call or shrink the flies.

I'm going to start selling the 100 strike puts. God help me.

Here's what to take: I got direction wrong on the biggest event of the week and it cost me nothing. That isn't luck. That's what writing the plan down before the open buys you.

Hopefully this was helpful,

Andrew Giovinazzi