Yo Pit Crazies,

The Dow closed above 54,000 for the first time ever and the S&P 500 printed a fresh record. So why am I shopping the 52-week low bin?

Because that is where the mispricing hides. When capital chases records, the names left behind are either broken or forgotten. Those are two very different things.

Give the Treasury Secretary credit for this tape. Scott Bessent is an old currency trader, and last Friday he had the New York Fed sell euros to buy yen on Treasury's behalf. The yen had been flirting with its weakest level since 1986 and closed the week at 157.40.

Add oil sliding on new Iran talks and risk appetite came right back. One I want. One I would leave alone.

Netflix Got Paid to Lose

Netflix Inc (NFLX) is climbing my Sibyl list (my scanner that tracks unusually large options bets) as a name coming off a 52-week low. It printed $65.08 on July 17 and trades in the low 70s. That is roughly 42 percent below its September high of $126.71.

The market hated last month's earnings. Revenue still grew 13 percent to $12.56 billion and Netflix bought back $4.7 billion of its own stock, the biggest buyback quarter in company history. The sin was guiding third quarter growth down to 11.7 percent.

I still believe Netflix won by losing Warner Bros. When WBD took Paramount Skydance's higher offer in February, Paramount cut Netflix a $2.8 billion check to go away. Netflix pocketed it and kept the balance sheet clean.

Then look at what Paramount bought. A federal judge froze the deal, Paramount agreed to push the close out as far as June 2027, and after September 30 it owes WBD 25 cents per share per quarter for the delay. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) trades near $8 against a 52-week high of $20.86.

1-Year NFLX Chart

Granted, my movie consumption is down 80 percent over the last 10 years. But this is a media and tech company with $27 billion left on its buyback authorization and an ad business on pace to double to about $3 billion this year. A former market leader in a record market finds a bid, and I like NFLX in the 90s by the fall.

I Cannot Drink to This

Never in 1,000 years did I think this one would land on a 52-week low list. I am talking about the beverage behemoth Constellation Brands (STZ), the importer behind Corona and Modelo.

It is one of a handful of stocks at its lows that still carries LEAPS (options that do not expire for a year or more). There is usually not much long-dated action on a name paying a 3.2 percent dividend.

Stocks need revenue, and STZ's fell 3 percent last quarter. Depletions, meaning what distributors actually sell through to retailers, slipped again after dropping 2.1 percent last fiscal year.

The demand problem is structural. Gallup has the share of American adults who drink at 54 percent, the lowest in its nearly 90-year survey, and the under-35 rate fell from 59 percent to 50 percent in two years. Maine has four or five pot shops in every town now, though Gallup's data says weed is not what is replacing the drinks. People are simply drinking less.

Then stack on the company damage: tariffs on Mexican imports and a Hispanic consumer that management has been calling soft since last year. That cohort is STZ's core beer buyer

6 month STZ chart

STZ sits at five-year lows, back at prices it last saw in the 2020 crash. Management raised full-year earnings guidance in June and the stock did not budge. On a week where the Dow prints records, this one cannot get out of its own way, and I do not see the bounce.

So which one does the crew pick for Monday's Ticker Highlight Show? Tap this link to join at whatever rate you want and get Monday's pick as soon as it hits.

Hopefully this was helpful,

Andrew Giovinazzi