Nobody has ever seen a SpaceX quarter and it reports tomorrow.

The straddle’s $18.30 on a $110 stock. Anywhere from 92 to 128 by Friday and the market wouldn’t be shocked, which isn’t a forecast, that’s a shrug.

Then two days after the print, 911.5 million shares come free. Largest unlock anybody’s ever done.

I don’t see how it stays above 100.

And the reason I care isn’t SpaceX. It’s Tesla, which I own, which just hit a one-year low, and which I think goes lower anyway.

Let me walk you through both.

Start with SpaceX, because it’s what’s dragging everything else around this week.

Nobody’s ever seen a quarter from this company. It came public in June and it reports for the first time tomorrow after the close, and the straddle’s sitting at $18.30 on a stock that’s trading around $110.

That’s a huge number for one print. Most big names go into earnings priced in single digits.

So the market’s saying anywhere from 92 to 128 by Friday and it wouldn’t be shocked. That’s not a forecast, that’s a shrug.

I don’t see how it stays above 100.

And look, that’s not some heroic call, because the low end of what’s already priced is 92. I just think the weight’s on that side of it.

The lock-up is a big part of that. Two days after the report, 911.5 million shares come free, which is the largest release anybody’s ever done. Those holders are sitting on a low cost basis, looking at a stock that’s already well under where it listed.

There’s still too much negative press in the short term.

Okay, so back to Tesla, which is the one I care about here because I own it.

It closed Friday around $311. The 52-week low is 297 and change, so we’re a few bucks off it, and in July it was up near $425.

High valuation, earnings weren’t great, capital spend is pretty big. Free cash flow went negative last quarter.

None of that is fatal on its own. It’s just not helpful going into a week where the other Musk name is pricing an 18% move.

So I think both of these are going to sort of suck together in the short term.

I want to be careful how I say that, because they’ll probably both be big technology booms down the road. I’m not selling the rest of my Tesla to make a point about the next ten days.

Tesla’s just in one of those spots right now. It needs something.

The robot would do it. So would the car around, the full self-drive something, if it lands instead of getting talked about for another quarter.

Give me one of those and I’d change my mind on the whole valuation conversation.

Until then I’ve got a stock sitting near a one-year low, a related name where the market’s paying $18.30 to guess, and the biggest unlock in history landing 48 hours after the guess.

I’m kind of just leaving it alone here.

Andrew Giovinazzi

P.S. Mark, Hans, Licia and Tim are going live tomorrow after the bell to break down the SpaceX report as it lands and show you where the real opportunities are once the numbers are out. JOIN THEM HERE