BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
December 1, 2024
Every time VIX gets to 14 since the election it makes a rubber biscuit bounce. The common denominator right now is every time SPX gets to 6000 there is some or another idiotic headline about Ukraine. Let’t see the list:
US to send long range missiles
Russia launched ICBM
Biden advisors want Nuclear missiles back to the Ukraine
Biden wants another 24 Billion dollars to Ukraine
And this is only the last 2 weeks.
3 month VIX chart
If Ukraine can be quiet for a couple of weeks, where does VIX go?
Take a look at the short term realized volatility
As traders we can always learn new stuff. Below is a snap of realized volatility and it still has the ripple effect of the election. That was a big gap that kept going to 6000. Since then, 10 realized volatility is down to 9%. It is very hard for option premiums to stay high when stocks are not really moving.
Part of me thinks we need to see the new administration but we should get to a VIX below 14 this week. For the simple reason stocks are glued to 6000.
If the nonsense in Ukraine stops.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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