Dear Trader,
We've wanted a look under Anthropic's hood for months, and the IPO prospectus just landed in Reuters' lap.
The growth numbers look wild.
A couple of lines further down had us wondering who's going to pay $2 trillion for this thing, and we put the details in the SIREN below.
Mark Sebastian hosts State of the Market today, and he's bringing Andrew Giovinazzi on as his guest.
We want to hear whether either of them would touch Anthropic at that price, and what a listing that size means for the AI stocks already trading.
They'll also cover the Nvidia and Starship stories below, so show up with your questions and a healthy dose of skepticism.
This link adds State of the Market to your calendar.
The Daily News Breakdown
SIREN: Reuters got its hands on Anthropic's IPO prospectus, and the headline loss would send any accountant reaching for the antacids. The company lost $42 billion in 2025. Roughly $34 billion of that came from an accounting charge tied to old fundraising deals, so the operating loss landed a bit over $8 billion.
Revenue jumped 12-fold to nearly $4.6 billion, while compute spending tripled to $7.33 billion. The filing also lists $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure commitments. If you plan on buying shares, note that two customers made up nearly a quarter of revenue. The sale could still value the company at more than $2 trillion, double the $965 billion figure Anthropic put on itself in May.
SIGN: Nvidia (NVDA) now trades cheaper than the S&P 500 on forward earnings, a sentence I never expected to type. FactSet puts its forward multiple (the price you pay for each dollar of next year's expected profit) at 18.7 against 19.2 for the index. DataTrek's Nicholas Colas compares it to ExxonMobil (XOM), which sits at 12.9.
Jensen Huang and the board noticed the discount too. Nvidia just added $150 billion to its buyback, the largest in U.S. history. Analysts see fiscal 2028 revenue near $700 billion, and Colas says Exxon could merge with the country's second-biggest energy company and still come up short of Nvidia's size a year from now.
SNEAKER: SpaceX finally got Starship into orbit on its 14th flight, after years of test runs that ended in some very expensive fireworks. The 171-foot upper stage hit about 17,500 mph and dropped off 26 Starlink satellites, which makes this the first Starship flight that actually earned SpaceX money.
It didn't go perfectly. An engine problem on the way up pushed mission managers to cut a planned 10-hour flight to about three hours before splashing down in the Pacific. NASA needs this rocket working, since Starship has a docking role in Artemis III, which the agency has on the calendar for late next year.