Dear Trader,
With oil at $110 and the election 11 days out, what are you supposed to do with my money right now?
Mark Sebastian and Andrew Giovinazzi go live today at 10 AM ET to answer it.
They’ll start with the three stories below, from the Saudi oil scare to Thursday’s bond rally to Wall Street’s gridlock math. Then they’ll get to what the smartest traders are doing with their positions right now.
Mark and Andrew spend every day around those traders, and they’ll walk you through what they’re seeing.
Andrew also has an announcement. He’s adding a bonus class to his X Factor Masterclass, and he’ll share the details live. If you’re already in X Factor or you’ve had your eye on it, you’ll want to hear this one.
Grab your seat with the link above and add it to your calendar so it doesn’t slip by. The three stories they’ll cover sit right below, so read up before the show and you’ll look like the smartest person in the chat.
Click this link to jump to the State of the Market live room.
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The Daily News Breakdown
SIREN: the Red Sea had traders bracing for a wider Middle East fight. That’s three straight weekly gains for the global benchmark. Saudi Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters Thursday, its first evacuation since the Iran war started.
The New York Times also reported that the U.S. and Israel have plans ready for renewed strikes on Iran after next month’s midterms. President Trump says he won’t attack before the election and that fuel prices will fall afterward. I’ll believe it when I see it at the pump.
Gas averages $4.29 a gallon, $1.22 more than a year ago, and diesel costs $6.31. One energy adviser expects $5 gas across the Midwest after a Chicago-area refinery lost power.
SIGN: The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 17 basis points Thursday to 4.972%, its first dip below 5% since Sept. 23. A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percent, and this was the biggest one-day drop since March 2023. Earlier this month, the 10-year and 30-year yields hit their highest levels in more than two decades, and bond buyers apparently decided 5% looked too good to pass up.
Thursday handed them plenty of reasons to hide out: a steep stock selloff, nerves over how much debt AI companies keep issuing, and Brent jumping 4% to $113. One strategist at South Street Securities put geopolitics at the top of his worry list. He also warned that if energy prices stay high, the Fed may have to do more. That’s a rude surprise waiting for anyone who just bought bonds as a safe spot.
SNEAKER: With the midterms less than two weeks out, Wall Street’s conventional wisdom says stocks drop if Democrats take both the House and the Senate. Bloomberg’s Markets Daily thinks that take’s too simple. The worry goes like this: Democrats lean toward regulation, and regulation could slow the AI boom.
Trump still holds the veto pen, though, and Democrats probably won’t win enough seats to override him. That makes tax hikes and new AI rules a tough sell for the rest of his term. Bloomberg’s own subhead says markets would do just fine with more gridlock. I’ve heard plenty of arguments for a do-nothing Congress, but “it’s good for your portfolio” might be the most convincing one yet.