Yo Pit Crazies,

If you have not caught Licia’s Candlestick trading extravaganza, check it out here.

At the Trading Desk, we covered how the VIX term structure works.   Basically, when short-term implied vol jumps, traders expect more movement.

When the VIX curve flattens, traders expect a lot of movement.

With all the major news out, 9-day VIX finished over VIX.

I will tell you what I think with happen.

VIX should break into Zone 3 on Monday.

Liquidity providers kept IV up after trying several times to break 16 on the south side today.  Two days of upzone activity and Friday had no real SPX moves.  Traders are pricing what they think will happen and that is south for stocks.

For a while we had AI, and the rates were dropping, now Nvidia Inc (Ticker: NVDA) is down $90 from its peak and Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) is selling a phone with a new USB plug.  Rates are not going down with the US Treasury borrowing $1 Trillion a year.  Big Tech is the only area this year that has not given up the ghost besides oil and the Saudis are fixing oil prices.

I don’t see how we don’t have a bit of Barney next week in SPX.  VIX is saying SPX moves bigly.

To your trading success,

AG