BY BILL GRIFFO

November 4, 2023

Each week, I’ll give an overview of a stock and Licia Leslie will follow that up with a chart analysis the next day. Bill Griffo will chime in with macro analysis and Andrew Giovinazzi will then finish out the week with a volatility breakdown.

Have a stock YOU want us to review? Email my team here. – Mark

Hey Traders,

The fertilizer industry is another industry that has been beaten down. It came to life on the Hamas attack which increased the potential for a supply disruption since Israel is an exporter of the product.

The stock did settle back down, and it looks really interesting at these levels and especially for this time of year.

Looking at the last report from the company, the results were dismal – the top line lost 37% on a YoY basis. 

But this is an industry that is very volatile, and there are a couple of reasons to buy the stock here.

Take a look below.

MOS Price is in a Great Location 

As you can see below, Mosaic (Ticker: MOS) is holding just above good longer-term support. I’d like to see it take out the 31.41 level, which would trigger an RSI reversal pattern of lower price and higher low in RSI.

You don’t need to risk much at all on this trade. You can use a sell stop on a close below 27.5.

The other thing I really like here is the seasonal trend for MOS.

Check out this bullish seasonal trend that is about to kick in:

With commodities seasonal trends can be pretty powerful. I would probably wait for the Nov17 OpEx to be completed but would look to pull the trigger on a long position beyond that.

A call calendar spread may work real well here into March. I will consider a Mar15/Dec15 40 call calendar for .90 or better.

Live and Trade With Passion My Friends,

Bill Griffo