THIS…Is How You Find A Top

Two years ago I was riding in the back of an Uber.

I had been at a work event (when those still happened) and was on my way home.

As a talker, I almost always end up striking up a conversation with my drivers.

On this particular night the driver took a real interest in what I did.

I explained a few ins and outs or trading and investing.

Finally he asked me:

“what do you think about cannabis stocks?  My wife has made a killing owning these things in the last few months.”

I said:  she should sell half right now and put the rest in cash.

He was puzzled…

He asked:

“But they are about to make cannabis legal in Canada and a bunch of other places.  Isn’t it a great time to be long?”

I told him 2 things:

  1.  Buy the rumor sell the news:  Once it’s legal, that will be a near term top.
  1. If my Uber driver is asking me about Cannabis stocks then the top is almost certainly near.

Insulted at first, I explained to him that the way information flows, he is near the bottom of the pecking order.

I told him that when someone with no particular expertise in the field thinks they are just going to keep going…

That is almost ALWAYS a top.

He told me he thought I was wrong.

Check out a chart of TLRY and tell me I was wrong:

Thursday I got a text from a friend from Second City…

…yes the second city that all the SNL actors come from.

He wanted to know what stocks he should buy….

…he had never invested in anything other than mutual funds in his 401k prior to this week.

You can draw your own conclusion.

Your Only Option,

Mark

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