BY BILL GRIFFO
November 5, 2025
Hey Income Hunters,
Last Year Power Income introduced this picture of likely Trump Policy that would be put into effect and the dangers it presented before it could be put into practice:
– The Fiscal Dominance Express
And once you understand what that means, you’ll know exactly how to position your portfolio before the next “policy panic” sends the train off the tracks and into an ultimate crash.
Fiscal dominance is critically important for investors to understand … it will set the seeds for a longer-term rebuild of America and a manufacturing renaissance.
However, it will also require a reset of the markets and economy in order to achieve this.
Let’s take a deeper dive into the story …
The markets are cheering again — stocks at new highs, yields grinding lower, and the dollar holding its ground — but beneath all that noise, one unstoppable force is powering straight down the tracks: Fiscal Dominance.
You’ve heard me mention it before — but it’s time to call it what it really is: The runaway train phase of U.S. finance.
What Is Fiscal Dominance?
Fiscal dominance means the Federal Reserve is no longer in control of monetary policy — the U.S. Treasury is.
When deficits get too big and the cost of servicing the debt gets too high, interest rates can’t rise freely anymore — because every tick higher in yield means billions more in taxpayer interest payments. So, the Fed becomes the silent passenger while fiscal policy drives the train.
Think of it this way:
- The Treasury spends → issues trillions in new debt.
- The Fed must buy it or stop QT to keep markets from seizing.
- Liquidity rises, asset prices soar, inflation reignites.
This chart tells the Fiscal Dominance story in one glance: even as the Fed tries to shrink its balance sheet, federal interest costs (red line) are soaring toward $1.3 trillion a year — the highest in U.S. history.
Every uptick in rates compounds the problem, forcing policymakers to either print more or risk a fiscal accident.
The takeaway? The era of “tight money” is over. The next phase is permanent liquidity — until the system resets.That’s fiscal dominance — and we’re riding it full speed ahead.
There is a Train Wreck Ahead”
Because neither political party wants to stop it from running out of control.
- Trump wants massive industrial spending, re-shoring supply chains, and rebuilding America’s defense base — all funded by deficits.
- Democrats want green energy and social infrastructure — also funded by deficits.
The bond market used to discipline bad fiscal behavior.
But as we saw in “Time to Buy Puts Protection on Bonds”, when Treasury supply surges, the Fed simply steps back in. That’s not capitalism — that’s permanent stimulus on autopilot.
And like all runaway trains, once you’ve committed to that much speed, braking becomes the real danger.
The Three Scenarios Ahead
The Melt-Up (2025–26):
The Powell pivot and Trump’s new Fed appointments (see “The New Federal Reserve”) inject waves of liquidity. Stocks rip higher, commodities surge, and gold makes new highs as inflation expectations re-ignite. S&P to $7,500+
The Stall-Out (2H’ 2026):
Deficits exceed $3 trillion, Treasury auctions struggle, and inflation reaccelerates. The Fed resumes QE by another name — “liquidity operations” or “balance sheet stabilization.” Bonds fall, but asset prices stay inflated. Inflation begins to accelerate.
The Reset (2027):
Foreign demand for Treasuries fades. The U.S. is forced to devalue the dollar — through higher inflation AND by putting a cap on interest rates. (see “Major Progress for Digital Dollars”). The major stock correction begins..
That’s why our Power Income playbook remains:
- Overweight hard assets (gold, silver,mortgaged real estate).
- Hold short-duration Treasuries for income and liquidity.
- Keep a sleeve in digital assets and commodity equities for inflation upside.
The Bottom Line
There is no stopping this Trump train is a warning. Once fiscal dominance takes over, policy tightening is political suicide, and the only way forward is to print, inflate, and reset.
That’s why every investor needs to prepare now — not when the next debt crisis hits.
Because by then, it won’t be a question of if the system changes… but how fast it does.
So stay alert, diversify across real assets, and don’t let the noise of the “soft landing” lull you to sleep while the Fiscal Dominance Express barrels ahead.
Stay alert. Stay invested in what’s real.
Live and Trade With Passion My Friends,
Bill Griffo
Bill Griffo
Head Income Trader
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