BY BILL GRIFFO May 15, 2024Hey Income Hunters, Over the past few months I have discussed how US manufacturing construction has begun to rise sharply. This trend has not only continued but is mirrored by a similar boom in Japan. The graph below illustrates this ongoing growth, showcasing how both nations are significantly increasing their investments in manufacturing…
BY BILL GRIFFO May 13, 2024China Is Buying Gold, Sending Prices to Record Highs – The New York Times (nytimes.com) Beijing is buying up gold to diversify its reserve funds and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar, long considered the most important currency to hold in reserve. China has been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings for more…
BY BILL GRIFFO May 8, 2024Last week Powell had a chance to shut down inflation quickly … When US Bank regulators seized Republic First the FDIC reported that the failure would cost the FDIC’s insurance fund $667 million … All Powell had to do was say Republic was sold but there will not be any more bailouts to…
BY BILL GRIFFO May 6, 2024I mentioned 2 major events last week to keep an eye on:Janet Yellen from the Dept of the Treasury announcing the 2nd and 3rd quarter Treasury bond issuance schedule Janet Yellen announced an increase in debt issuance with the reason being that tax receipts came in lower than expected … Translation here…
BY BILL GRIFFO May 1, 2024Hey Income Hunters, Expectations are for Powell to hold rates steady at the FOMC meeting today but that is half the story as consensus anticipates a hawkish press conference. Traders will be acutely focused on how Powell handles recent upside data on inflation plus the overwhelmingly hawkish consensus. Traders are now pricing in around…
BY BILL GRIFFO April 29, 2024Hey Income Hunters, We have seen a complete shift in sentiment about the Fed’s next action for interest rates … Odds are now split where we could see a hike or a cut and they are actually leaning slightly on the hike side. This presents an incredible opportunity for investors and we will…
BY BILL GRIFFO April 24, 2024On Monday Power Income’s headline was Cover shorts in stocks and bonds and sure enough we have had a great bounce off last week’s lows. Bonds are still sitting near the lows but the US 2-year auction resulted in the first stop through the auction level of the year. Notice the drop…
BY BILL GRIFFO April 22, 2024Hey Income Hunters, On April 3rd I wrote that we should see a Short-term pullback in stocks and bonds due to a tightening in liquidity conditions … As you can see below we did get the pullback and now is the time to cover shorts and look to get long again … The…
BY BILL GRIFFO April 10, 2024Hey Income Hunters, Interest payments on US government debt had doubled since Covid … The trend in govt spending (up 9% YoY) & debt (up $1.0 trillion every 100 days drives a big motivation for Fed to cut rates to constrain surge in interest costs .. Call it interest expense cost control .. It…
BY BILL GRIFFO April 8, 2024 Hey Income Hunters, Wow! A massive miss in the payroll report, which came in above the highest estimates on Wall Street puts the Fed in the Hot Seat … The number came in at 303k with the highest estimate at 290k … This was a 4 standard deviation (Sigma)…