The Week Ahead

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The VIX closed 38 on Friday.  This was the lowest VIX level since March 4th.  Unlike some times where the VIX dropping can seem slow relative to the VIX rallying, the VIX has not collapsed, but had a steady drop:

However, I would state that its rate of drop has slowed.  Last week was a pretty darn strong week for the S&P 500, yet the VIX did not get completely face punched.  

On the week the S&P 500 gained 125 points, about 5%.  Normally, an extremely strong week. The VIX only lost 3 points on the week.  

What will this week bring?  I still feel like there is an increase in volatility coming one of these weeks.  Potentially this week. Not a giant pop like in March, but potentially a pop back above 45 or even 50 as we have a week where money comes out of the market.

I think we could see a period of time where volatility is muted, but the market is soft.  This is typically something that happens during these types of events.  

I would note that despite two strong weeks, the VIX is still backward, and realized volatility is still strong on some days and can come from nowhere.

I do not think ANYONE saw Friday’s end of day ramp coming, but it did.

VIX Traffic Light Remains Yellow

Your Only Option,

Mark

PS:  A spike in volatility is just around the corner. At these levels the intraday moves are still gonna be big. There’s only one way to prepare for those and that’s with my Vol Edge

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