The Tools Just Showed Up

Tim Colby

Tim Colby

Tim Colby

Hey Trader,

Big day for the desk. The Bloomberg terminal is live. I cannot tell you how fired up I am right now!

I’ve been writing about Treasury flags, scorecards and frameworks. All of that is part of my process. But that’s me working from memory and theory while waiting for the tools to show up. The tools just showed up.

I breathe, eat and sleep spreadsheets tied to Bloomberg. It’s the glasses I’ve used for nearly two decades. I just got off the phone with their setup desk and even they were surprised that I built all these sheets myself. Needless to say, I’ve felt blind for weeks without it. And it feels so good to finally start to see again. It’s like a musician getting their instrument back after years away.

So let me give you a taste of what this is going to look like.

On Friday after markets closed, Trump implemented a back door to his 15 percent tariffs right after the Supreme Court ruled the original ones unconstitutional. As I was writing this today, Anthropic put the heat on IBM (IBM), making the day more than just Trump tariffs. Here’s how the four assets on your scorecard reacted today. Stocks down. Bonds up. Dollar down. Gold up.

If today were a clean “Sell America” like we saw in April, bonds would be down too. Nobody wants U.S. assets, nobody wants U.S. debt. But bonds went up, led by the near-term part of the curve. That’s a flight-to-quality bid. Scared money still trusts Treasuries. So it’s a hybrid. Growth shock with eroding confidence, but not full panic.

The tell is the dollar. In a normal growth scare, the dollar goes up. Safe haven. This time it fell alongside equities. That tells you capital is pricing in lower U.S. growth and growing skeptical of U.S. assets as a hiding place. Where does it go? Gold. Vaneck Gold Miners (GDX) are at the top of the board. iShares Consumer Discretionary (IYC) and State Street Industrials (XLI) are at the bottom.

That’s one read, on one day, using the same framework you already have. Now imagine that with a fully automated and organized workflow. No scrambling, no trying to put the pieces together. It’s just all there at my fingertips. That’s what I’m building.

Here’s the deal. I’m going to be heads down for a bit just to get the basics built. My layout, dashboards, research infrastructure. I’m hoping to get most of it done this week. In the meantime, keep those scorecards handy. The framework doesn’t need Bloomberg to work. When you see stocks and bonds moving together, go check the dollar and gold. Go check the sector ETFs. Figure out which card is flashing, check the news to see how it lines up. That muscle you’re building right now is the same one I use.

The scorecards are the map. I’m building the GPS. When it’s ready, I’ll walk you through how to read it.

Trust the Process,

Tim

Tim Colby

Tim Colby

Tim Colby is a macro trader and strategist with 15 years of derivatives experience spanning the AMEX and CBOE trading floors through managing a discretionary macro portfolio. He built strategies that scaled past $200M in AUM, delivered 75% profitable months with no losing years, and earned a Pinnacle Award nomination for best three-year discretionary return.

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About the Author

Tim Colby

Tim Colby

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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