December is shaping up to be the most exciting end to an exciting year.

I thought 2020 and 2021 were exciting.

Then 2022 said, “Hold my beer.”

Once again, there is the ideal setup going into this month, and I will tell you what it is inside.

The VIX is again near year lows going into a pivotal Fed meeting and CPI number.

30 Day Volatility in VIX

Will history repeat itself?

20 VIX Is the New 12

Note below that Vol Man is riding a wave of realized volatility higher and higher this year.

It is hard to believe one-year realized volatility – that is taking the close-to-close volatility from each day over the last year and averaging it – is still rising.

Right now, it is clocking in around 21%.

Also note that each time this year, when implied volatility dipped below the long term average, it popped back up. 

This started when the Fed started raising rates – and the Fed has yet to stop raising rates.

That is why this next month can still be nuts.

We have 2 weeks to wait and most likely we see a bit lower VIX until then.

To trade it, jump into the SPYMaster this week.

To Your Trading Success,

AG