Dear Trader,
The Jensen Huang saga has taken over the financial media this week, and thankfully it all came out AFTER he helped AI get into our memes.
A month ago, NVDA taking it on the chin would’ve tanked the whole market. On Thursday, Nvidia opened down 14% after its board announced Huang’s resignation, and the S&P 500 still clawed its way into the green by late morning. It rolled back over in the afternoon when oil and yields bounced, and it closed down 0.35% at 7,592.40. That’s a mere blip for a day when the face of the AI boom walked out the door.
NVDA isn’t driving the market bus. It isn’t bonds, and it isn’t even oil. It’s 100% not NVDA earnings on Tuesday, either.
The real story is Anthropic. It’s going public at a time when the QQQ has basically sold straight down since October 6th. That’s the same day Nvidia set its record close, and the chipmaker alone has shed about $1.8 trillion in market value since then. On November 5th, the S&P 500 had its worst day since the Liberation Day tariffs in April 2025.
Then on Monday, with no news that ANYONE would call bullish, the Nasdaq jumped 2.7% and climbed out of correction territory.
Anthropic and the stocks tied to it have started sucking the air out of the market. For a minute there, the IPO looked so shaky that I thought Anthropic might push it back. An early draft filing in September had the company eyeing a valuation around $2 trillion. On Tuesday it set a range of $70 to $78 a share, about $1.4 trillion fully diluted at the top end.
Nobody’s talking about a delay anymore. Bloomberg reports the book is about six times oversubscribed, and the Financial Times says bankers are weighing a valuation of $1.5 trillion or more. You know what that means? The IPO price is going up.
When all is said and done, this deal ends up closer to $2 trillion than $1 trillion, and the stock will likely top the peak SPCX hit after its debut.
Anthropic prices on Wednesday, November 18th, and starts trading Thursday, November 19th. Between now and then, I expect traders to get aggressive with its partners. Seven of its computing suppliers, including Nvidia, Google and Broadcom, have agreed to buy a combined $26 billion of stock at the IPO price.
Some companies also own a LARGE stake in Anthropic compared to their own market cap, and those names are about to run wild. Three companies worth less than $40 billion each stand to make more than $4 billion on this IPO. I think they will pick up 10% over the next week, maybe more.
Once Wednesday hits, reality sets in on those names. Then we get the IPO itself. If Anthropic trades at $2.5 trillion, I’m not just calling a top for AI. It could be the top for the rest of the year.
In the meantime, there’s money to be made.
The Well Isn’t Dry Yet
Nvidia (NVDA) ripped the bandaid off the Huang problem.
It opened around $151 on Thursday, traded as low as $148.80, and closed at $166.19. Retail traders put in the biggest opening bid Vanda Research has ever recorded for Nvidia.
The stock slipped another 2% today, and I think it turns into a huge buy ahead of Tuesday’s earnings.
Wall Street always goes back to the well, and it’ll keep buying this stock until it proves you can’t make money owning it.
Go long.
Return to Sender
Microsoft (MSFT).
A global outage started Thursday and took down Outlook, Teams and Copilot, with 140,000 Downdetector reports from 74 countries, and it dragged into Friday.
Nvidia’s slide pushed Microsoft past it in market cap for a stretch, and I see zero value in owning it. I’m not saying it’s headed lower, but unless you like running covered calls, this stock is dead money.
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