I was on a call with contacts in Israel last week. In one hour, they had to break to shelter twice because of incoming drones. My friend in Bahrain, the son of the finance minister, told me the shelling is worse than anything he’s seen. He said it’s the first time he’s genuinely feared for his safety.

The administration says everything is calming down. Someone is not telling the truth.

Here’s the best way I can explain the “negotiations” with Iran. Imagine you’ve got a bike for sale. I tell everyone we’ve got a deal to buy the bike. But you and I have never spoken. That’s what’s happening right now. The U.S. says talks are underway. Iran says they’ve never agreed to anything. If you’re trading on a quick resolution, you’re buying a bike that isn’t for sale.

Five Ships Where 138 Used to Be

The numbers tell the real story. Before this conflict started, the Strait of Hormuz averaged 138 vessel transits per day. Last week, maritime intelligence firm Windward tracked five ships with their tracking systems on in a single day. The IRGC has set up what amounts to a tollbooth, charging vessels two million dollars for permission to pass through Iranian waters around Larak Island. Iran’s parliament is now drafting legislation to make those tolls permanent.

Brent crude jumped from around 65 dollars a barrel before the war to above 100. The OECD raised its global inflation forecast to four percent and cut growth projections across the board. One-fifth of the world’s oil supply runs through that strait. This is not a headline. This is the plumbing of the global economy, and it’s broken.

Watch What Rubio Brings Home

Secretary of State Marco Rubio went to the G7 meeting in France last week to rally European support. His pitch was blunt. He told reporters that very little American energy comes through the strait, so the rest of the world should step up and deal with it. The Europeans pushed back hard. Germany’s defense minister said plainly that this is not their war. Initially, 16 NATO countries rejected the request to send warships.

That’s your leading indicator. If European partners sign on with real resources, this conflict has a path to resolution. If they keep pushing back, the strait stays effectively closed, oil stays elevated, and the market keeps melting lower. Twenty-two countries eventually signed a statement about “contributing to appropriate efforts,” but statements and warships are very different things.

The April 6 Deadline Is a Fiction

The president set an April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or face attacks on its power infrastructure. Anyone with a modicum of rationality knows nothing is getting resolved by April 6. The hardliners still run the country. They’ve committed to taking this fight to the grave if they have to. And the disinformation coming from Iran, China, and Russia is as heavy as I’ve ever seen. The Iranians claimed they hit an aircraft carrier with missiles. It was a laundry room fire. The carrier pulled out for repairs. That’s the level of fog we’re operating in.

Don’t buy the bike. Trade what’s in front of you today. This conflict has weeks, possibly months, left to play out. Anybody positioning for a quick resolution rally is going to get hurt. The opportunity is real, but it’s a short-duration, tactical one. Not a swing trade on hope.

• Frank