Morning, everybody.

On Monday's I'd Trade That, I asked Mark Sebastian a question I still can't answer. For a month and a half, all I've read is that food prices are going up and farm inputs are going up. So why is Mosaic (MOS), the company that makes the fertilizer, down 24% in a month?

Mark pointed to Mosaic's Saudi Arabia exposure. Fair enough. That still doesn't explain a stock giving away that much that fast.

Check the replay below or read the wrap up after:

Mosaic has company, too. What's the one thing AI needs? Electricity. Constellation Energy (CEG) is getting its head kicked in anyway, and Dollar Tree (DLTR) is up 12% in a month with consumer confidence in the basement.

The headlines don't match the tape. Something's broken, and I don't know what it is. I do know who's doing the trading, and the machines don't have a soul.

So I spent the show on what the machines actually respond to. Further down, I'll show you the one line on the bond chart I'd trade against, and the exact spread I'd use when price taps it.

This show is called I'd Trade That. It's not called I Buy This for the Next Three and a Half Months. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), SpaceX (SPCX) and the Qs are all beaten up, so fight your bias, okay?

This market sells off for a little bit, then pops. Sells off again, pops again. On Friday we hit the third band, moved to oversold and bounced, because that's where shorts cover.

Is this thing going back to 741? No idea. I do have a plan, and I'm not the guy promising you 500%. I'm trying to make you 30% in the next 25 minutes, if it sets up.

The Fur Pelt Section

Do you understand how fortunate we are? You don't have to go up into Ottawa and collect fur pelts. You've got a box in front of you that'll make you money if you follow very specific rules.

Start with VWAP, volume-weighted average price. It's the day's average price, weighted by how many shares traded at each level, and it's the benchmark institutions grade their own buying against. Pull up a one-minute chart, add VWAP, then add the band multipliers.

That blue line is VWAP. The bands around it are standard deviations. Roughly two-thirds of the trading should sit inside the first band, about 95% inside the second and 99.7% inside the third.

So when price gets out to that third band, the algorithms say to themselves, "This is statistically rare." It doesn't matter what Scott Bessent or Donald Trump is saying. The algos don't think. They just act.

Then add the anchor. Anchored VWAP starts the math at a moment you pick, and I anchored mine to 4:00 a.m. Friday.

Why there? This market runs on zero-day options (contracts that expire the same day they trade), and the previous day is the reference point for tons of algorithms. You were asleep at 4:00 a.m., and the algos weren't.

Watch the first 15 or 20 minutes before you touch anything. Then trade where the volume is: Intel (INTC), Nvidia, Palantir, Bank of America. Liquid names give you tight spreads.

I want options with a nickel between the bid and the ask, a penny if I can get it, and nothing at 20 or 25 cents. Buy a wide spread and you'll hand back 15 or 20 cents just getting out. That's slippage, and it'll beat you up as a trader.

Bumper Cars

Now the TLT, the long-bond ETF. Ignore the noise about the Treasury Department, because this move is mechanical. At some point the shorts have to cover, and they have, a little bit.

On the daily chart you've got an 8/20 crossover (the eight-day moving average crossing above the 20-day). Typically that's bullish. But look at the 50-day: it bounced right off that level.

So please don't trade this unless you'll do exactly what I tell you. On the anchored VWAP there's a line in the sand, and price hit it twice and sold off both times.

That becomes the trade. Buy the 80 put, sell the 79 put, and scalp it.

Not exciting enough? Look at SpaceX running from 148 to 146 on the same setup. If you're not doing this, you're not trying.

These are bumper cars. Here to there, and I'm out if price gets above that line. It's the cleanest risk management I know.

The four names I'd watch when the conditions line up: SpaceX, Tesla, Micron (MU) and Microsoft (MSFT).

I'm also eyeing beaten-up stuff like Mosaic and First Solar (FSLR). After a 15% or 20% drop, I'm not hunting a recovery, just a 1% move.

I'll be honest with you. Saturday and Sunday felt like one punch after the next, and I still have long positions I have to manage.

Every trade you make, keep one question in the back of your mind: what happens if something unexpected happens? It's not what you want to hear at 9:43 in the morning. I promise you it's what you need to hear.

I'm 45, and I'm trying to simplify things and take some suffering out of people's lives. Readers in this industry come in wanting a 3% chance of making 100%. I'm trying to give you an 80% chance of making 70%.

I want you to make money. More than that, I don't want you to lose money, and there's a big difference between those two things.

Order Me a Showstopper

When Mark came in, he said money just ran to bonds to hide for the first time in a long while. I think yields got high enough that people said, "At 5%, I'll get myself a 10-year." Add some real fear coming out of the AI space, and there's your bid.

Chipotle looks awful. Mark orders a double meat burrito, I get the bill, and it's $17.94 for a burrito.

McDonald's (MCD) is the one I'd actually look at. People think it's a food company. It's a REIT that sells food, and with rates coming in, it's at a really interesting level.

To Big Cap in the chat: I laughed so hard when the Ravens lost Sunday. Go Bills. We even named a drink on air: a Guinness with a shot of Mellow Corn is now a Showstopper.

Also, Northwestern walks into the Shoe in two weeks and beats Ohio State. That's a call.

I go live every weekday at 9:20 a.m. Eastern for 40 to 50 minutes, drawing the lines in real time. Tap here to join me tomorrow morning.

I'd Trade That,

Garrett Baldwin