Hi Shoppers,

As much as the president tries to rally the stock market, it keeps heading lower.

Here's the action on his latest post, extending the pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6:

Futures rallied 60 points in one minute and another 10 in minute two before reversing and giving back 47 of those points. (And look at that bump in volume just before his announcement.)

This is the pattern now. Every presidential post gets a shorter bounce. Two weeks ago, a pause on strikes sent futures up 150 points overnight. Last week, the 'talks are going well' post held for about an hour. Last night, the rally lasted two minutes. The market is pricing in that these posts don't change the underlying problem: oil above $100, the Strait of Hormuz still choked, and inflation expectations climbing.

As I'm writing this at 10:00 PM ET, futures are only up 20.

The market is catching on, Mr. President. And it's going lower.

Once we closed below that 200-day moving average (the line that separates a healthy trend from a broken one), there was no looking back.

The last time the S&P broke below its 200-day moving average was around this time last year, during Liberation Day tariff chaos. That breakdown led to a 10 percent correction before buyers stepped in. The difference this time: we've got a shooting war in the Middle East, oil prices that haven't been this high since 2022, and a Fed that can't cut rates into rising inflation.

The safety net is thinner.

My support level of $5,555 has been breached. It's now resistance, and it's the high of tonight so far.

The next level of support: $5,444.50. That's only about 100 points away. Easy peasy.

Stay nimble out there, Shoppers

Thank You For Reading … See You Next Tuesday,

Licia Leslie

PS It isn’t too late to join Andrew and Sybil.