Yo Pit Crazies,
AG's alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis.
As usual, I start with my last forecast…
Last Week’s Big Call
“Sadly, the Republicans had a chance to improve things, even one thing, and really made things worse. The positive jobs number is just a reminder that the AI train needs to keep going. On the plus side, this was a huge year for corporate profits and getting used to the tariff regime of the year before. Voters wanted some balance in policy and got higher prices and a war and they did not voted for. While there are a lot of positives in the Trump Administration, that can easily be undone by the next President since Congress did nothing to create laws around the gains. I expect a higher VIX next week, and a trip to close to 700 SPY. I would like to be wrong but the VIX curve is too backward to say otherwise. A cease fire in Iran would help all of that and drive SPY to 760 or higher. So far we are 0 for everything on ceasefire deals. I see a huge SPY range next week.”
SPY did have a large range but nothing like the week before. VIX spent most of the week dropping until Friday. For the most part the week was pretty benign except the news that NVDA CEO Jensen Huang has been getting busy with the help and maybe a spy.
That was enough to shave nearly $2 trillion dollars from NVDA’s market cap.
The Weekly Wrap Up
Applied Material (AMAT) beat but the market did not care. Once again chip stock valuations came into question and the fact that Nvidia Corp (NVDA) got taken the woodshed did not help. The inflation numbers were not terrible but really do not reflect the drop in oil prices yet. It was hard to get out of NVDA’s shadow even with the Anthropic IPO fully subscribed for next week. The mood for tech was poor for most of the week.
Mini Rant
A week post election and the Republicans are still squandering their majority to do anything. They might get some judges through but re-electing Sen Thune as the most useless Senate Majority Leader in history to the most useless Senate Minority Leader in history was not a reassuring sign the Republicans learned anything. The Democrats right on cue called for lots of subpoenas of Trump administration officials and a jump in entitlement spending which gave us inflation in the first place. They spent all of one day backtracking on their “affordability” crisis.
Meanwhile gas prices plunged post election and there is talk the Executive Branch might make people prove they are citizens for USGov benefits. There is a glimmer of hope.
(Every Friday, The Options Insider Radio Network’s Vol Views offers bonus volatility insights with either Mark or myself, no charge!)
SPY daily price action over the last 30 days with one-day candles. SPY Sigma (volatility per term) for Nov, Dec and Jan
SPY spent most of the week getting back some gains it gave up from the week before. The tech valuation in chip stocks are the biggest issue right now and there is a ton of value in Main Street stocks. As ugly as the NVDA news was, it barely caused a hiccup in the SPY.
SPY Realized Volatility snap on Nov 13, 2026
Here's what realized volatility means: it measures how much a stock actually moved over a specific time period. Think of it like checking your car's odometer after a road trip. The odometer tells you how far you actually traveled, not how far you planned to go.
High realized volatility means big price swings. When SPY has high realized volatility, the market is unstable and prone to sharp drops. When HV10 (realized volatility over the last 10 trading days) is under 10, stocks aren't going anywhere.
10 Day Realized volatility ran over 30% and is still as touchy as a lizard in a skillet. I do not see that giving up the ghost at all with all of the market moving news we have next week.
VIX Curves
Closing VIX cash and curve Nov 13
Closing Curve Nov 06
The VIX curve went from full panic to a higher volatility contango by the close Friday. The fact that the curve inverted means we got past the election but there is still too much unsettled business for a below 18 close.
(Check out Volatility 101 basics on our Option Pit YouTube channel, now streaming.)
OP VIX Zone Watch
VIX ZONE 1 9-13
VIX ZONE 2 13.01-17.99 We tickled here
VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 We raced through here
VIX ZONE 4 24+ We started
VIX mostly spent the week retreating from higher levels. Friday caught a good bid into the close mostly from a data outage at airports as the FAA grounded all flights. The Jensen news not getting better did not help either. The hop back into Zone 3 is a spot of bother for SPY bulls next week.
VIX 30-day chart with one-minute candles
This chart says it all, which is that VIX has not been able to post a low in 30 days. That is usually a sign of trouble when the market cannot settle down. Be mindful of that in trading next week. VIX can always make a 30 day low, but it does not have to.
The Big Call
ANT and NVDA will take the stage in a one two punch. I expect both to be bullish with NVDA revenues doing better than expected. With the stock down so much into the teens for a P/E ratio, this is a stock that should go up. ANT will rule the end of the week and if it can hold the IPO price or higher, the market tone should improve. I expect a sniff of 770 SPY on the tech euphoria with VIX trading into the lows 17s. The FAA outage of course is a wild card as long as the SKYNET does not get us. Iran is still a thing even though the SoW has mostly solved the oil supply issue. Any real break there is very bearish VIX.
That said, this coming week I’m going to break down how crazy this market has gotten… why I think it’s topping out… and where to find big movers using a system I've developed over my entire professional trading career.
I’ll even name a couple off.
To Your Trading Success,
Andrew