BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
June 2nd, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
These days, it feels like all you need to do is wait half a day and the market will completely change its mind. On that note, if you’re into strategies that bide their time before springing into action, you might want to take a look at this one. But unless you’re among the fortunate few trading those elusive SPY Zones, you’re probably out here with the rest of us—grinding through what I like to call an orbiting market.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces reportedly took out several Russian bombers. Meanwhile, Trump took a hard stance on China, criticizing them for allegedly failing to meet rare earth mineral agreements. Even just the escalation in Ukraine was enough to spike the VIX and knock the SPY down 100 points.
But that’s not what happened.
Traders are getting Vol Fatigue
This is what we tend to see when the VIX is relatively elevated—Zone 3 or higher—but the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) fails to sustain any intraday momentum. With the VIX at 18, a typical two-day SPY move should be around 12 points in either direction. Yet, as the chart below shows, we’ve had four trading days and a weekend with virtually no change on a close-to-close basis. The market isn’t moving, but traders aren’t willing to crush implied volatility either.
10 day SPY chart with 1 day candles
The VIX is pricing in $6–$7 moves per day (close to close), yet the actual price action delivers only a fraction of that. If you’re scalping options on a daily basis, there’s not much profit to be made—unless, of course, you’re trading the Zones.
I’m going live for free tomorrow in the State of the Market to break all of this down. Right now, every SPY dip is getting bought—someone out there clearly sees something.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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