BY HANNAH SELNER
June 3, 2024
Dear Option Pit Research,
Nvidia was founded on April 5th, 1993 by Jensen Huang, Chris Mala – I’m just kidding.
If you want to read the history of Nvidia, Google “history of Nvidia” and you’ll find a nice little breakdown. That’s not what Option Pit Research is going to bring you. We’re breaking down information and drawing conclusions by reading BETWEEN the lines, not telling you stuff you can read on the front page of Barron’s (no hate to Barron’s, I read it too).
Part 1 of our Nvidia Special Report will focus on the Rise of Nvidia and its ability to “move markets.” I’m going to start with some quick numbers:
- NVDA stock is up 125% YTD
- NVDA makes up the third largest chunk of the S&P 500, following Microsoft and Apple, coming in at 6.20%
- Just a few days ago on May 30th, NVDA stole headlines by reaching the super-exclusive $1 trillion valuation club for the first time
If you pay attention to what’s happening in the market and read an article or two a day, these are probably all numbers you know.
Let’s get into two you don’t… and then I’m going to tell you what they mean for us as traders.
Two Numbers You Don’t Know: 21.32 & -0.28
At Option Pit, we talk about “what moves markets.”
We care about what moves markets – and you should, too – because when we can pinpoint and understand momentum, we can anticipate it. That anticipation can yield profits over time – that’s trading. That’s what we’re here to help you understand, and provide you with the tools to make money trading.
This week, we’re targeting Nvidia.
Over the last year, there has been an undeniable correlation between the momentum and movement of Nvidia as a single stock and the overall markets.
I say undeniable because – well – you’re not blind:
NVDA on top, SPX on bottom, moving in tandem. Charts by Mark Sebastian.
You can see when NVDA goes up, the market goes up. When NVDA goes down, the Now, could I show you a chart of Microsoft + the SPY or Amazon + the SPY and you’d see the same thing? Maybe – but not as closely as the market has followed NVDA.
Let’s shift gears. Now, I want you to take a look at the last two weeks.
Top line in red is the percentage NVDA has moved in 2 weeks. Blue is the market:
NVDA in red, SPY in blue
NVDA + 21.32%
SPY -0.28%
…Why?
…Why did the correlation break?
We don’t always know, but when I saw this I asked myself: “Woah, how far would the market have dropped if NVDA HADN’T gone up over twenty percent?”
Market internals are weakening. AI is no longer carrying the entire market no other AI stocks are rallying to carry. AMD down, ARM down, MRVL just got smoked. SNOW, CRM, you name it – they’re lower.
So…
If NVDA hits a soft patch… where does the market go if internals are already lower and no other AI stocks are holding us up?
Or… what if something like interest rates push the market lower?
Could that catalyze a fall through the floor if NVDA doesn’t “put the market on its back?”
That’s what we’re looking to answer by the end of this week, ahead of Friday’s Stock Split. This is just the first article building our foundation of understanding – making sure we’re all on the same page.
Tomorrow, we’ll be looking at the last few big market Stock Splits, how stocks behaved INTO and OUT of them, and if we think NVDA is going to be the same.
Stay tuned – and don’t forget that at the end of this week, we’re going to send you a free trade.
Godspeed,
P.S. Want to give a quick shout-out to my first public fan here at Option Pit: William aka “Bill.” He sent me an email about Option Pit University and started with this, so thank you Bill, I appreciate it. Hopefully much more to come –
P.P.S. As always, I love hearing your feedback; as positive as Bill’s, or not! Never hesitate to shoot me an email: [email protected]
Hannah Selner
Director of Product Development, Option Pit
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