Yo Pit Crazies,

I hope you had a good three-day weekend. (And that you actually had a three-day weekend. Not everyone gets those!)

I went fishing Monday but watched the fish swim under the dock where I was set up.  I had the wrong bait. My buddy had the right minnow lure and pulled out a nice fish in one cast.

That’s the difference between fishing and catching fish.

And it’s similar to the policy we have toward Russia and oil right now. The G-7 keeps throwing bait in the water hoping Vlad will bite. This weekend there was an oil embargo.

Let’s see if they get a nibble.

Oil Prices Make 2022 highs

$87.90 for United States Oil Fund LP (TIcker: USO) this morning.

None of that is good for the stock market, as historically recessions can start with a spike in oil prices.

This will not be good politically either, as the ruling party tends to get blamed.

USO One-Year chart with one-day candles.

Bill and I spoke on this in Power Gains last week.

The 25 area for the VIX has been a bouncy area, since every time we see it VIX takes off again as more bad news hits stocks. We bought VIX call butterflies on Thursday that we might be selling this week.

The semi-embargo will do little to thwart Russia, but it will increase oil prices. That will lead to weaker stock prices into the massive rallies we had last week.

Get set for a bumpy week.

To Your Trading Success,

AG