Long Way to Nowhere

The Option Pit VIX Traffic Light Is Yellow: Volatility is likely to move wildly.

 

The SPX ran up 11.47 points on Wednesday while the VIX dropped .68 points to 18.23. That’s a stone’s throw from a new recent low – and we might get there.

 

But I want to point out an area that is seeing high volatility and the options are simply not pricing it in …

 

That sector is oil.

 

Check out the IV and realized vol in United States Oil ETF (USO) over the last 10 days…

 

 

Oil IV has been in consistent decline, just like S&P 500 vol, over the last 6 months.

 

But while the IV is dropping, we keep getting strong spurts of movement.

 

We are in the midst of one of those right now…

 

Take a look at Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE):

 

 

XLE vol is just off its six-month lows, but the stocks themselves are flying…

 

The gap between realized and implied is almost five points. That is huge.

 

I would be looking to own premium here …

 

Traders can pick a stock like XOM or CVX … or just buy options on XLE.

 

Either way, I think there are dollars to be made.

 

Speaking of dollars to be made …

 

Don’t miss Licia Leslie’s Profit Window live session tonight. The next 45 days offer HUGE potential for gains. See why and how you can take advantage during a no-cost session that starts at 5:30 p.m ET.

 

Questions? Leave them in the comments below!

 

Your Only Option,

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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About the Author

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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