BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
January 11, 2024
Yo Pit Crazies,
Surveying the Option Pit Landscape, Licia is still coming up with great risk reward setups for the Option Shopper. .08 to .90 is the magic of 0DTE options near the end of the day. 10x returns when things go well but $80 risk on a 10 lot is a good way to roll.
I had no idea that John Scheider covered “It’s Now or Never.” Just when I cannot think I can be surprised, it is a lock to happen. Traders rushed the SPX today trying to push 4800 on the pre-CPI number. I think traders what to be in before the number. I was surprised by that too.
It is the ultimate FOMO trade. Jump in before the number so i don’t have to pay up on the gap. How can I tell that traders are getting excited?
There is a way.
Implied Volatilities (IV) are going up in the short term
Stocks rally on certainty. The market hates uncertainty in the short term. If the CPI number is in line, that helps with price stability. And we should rally pretty big over the next few days.
IV rises when traders think the underlying will move.
Next week is a holiday and one less day is already priced in but lower options prices move faster. I own a bit of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (Ticker: SPY) Jan19 cycle. This might also make a great 0DTE trade after the CPI.
Once again, everything keeps pointing to a bigger than the market is pricing. The last 6 CPI numbers the market has underpriced the 3 day move.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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CAPITOL GAINS: SMR Aug16 7 call closed for a 150% gain
DELTA STRIKE: VLY Mar15 8 puts closed for a 88% gain
PFE May17 26 calls closed for a 66% win
OP MENTORING: SPY Mar22/19 510 put calendars and 520 calls for 6.4% gain
OPTION SHOPPER: ERX Mar28 65 calls closed for a 90% gain