Yo, Pit Crazies,
If you missed my OP Mentoring extravaganza where you can learn to invest with 10% of the risk and twice the gains, check out this link.
I get a chuckle out of financial Twitter..
Folks keep looking for what happened and extrapolate what will happen in the future.
Like this time will be just like all the other times.
I can tell you this … everyone missed the best buying opportunity of the last 20 years.
What was that you say?
Six-month VIX chart with one-day candles, IV of VIX in red on the bottom chart.
VIX did not go to 50. In fact, there was no VIX back then.
But I was there and saw peak volatility for that period of time.
Volatility follows a pattern that will give you an idea of the bottom.
It is not what you think.
VIX Is, First and Foremost, A Reflection of Expected Realized Vol
For those scoring at home, this week had a one-day move of 80+ volatility.
That’s nuts! So when folks say they need to see VIX trade 50, what they mean is that the 30-day volatility expectation has to be 50% daily vol, or just over 3% per day for a month.
I did a show on Option Insider Radio with Russel Rhodes, Dr. VIX. he said the big 50 VIX ain’t happening.
And I agree with him.
What we have is a ranging market with big swings. Not new lows or new highs in SPX.
The Best Ever
The best buying opp in the last 20 years was the Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ) for $19 in 2002.
Did vol spike? Nope. We dropped to that level as retail left the market in droves.The VIX spike was way before that in 2001.
Sound familiar? Better to see if VIX can get back to the teens to jump in. There will be plenty of upside left.
To Your Trading Success,
AG