BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
May 1st, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
I’ll admit, I picked up some shares of Meta Inc. (Ticker: META) earlier this week. I mentioned it in my rooms, but didn’t highlight it much in my Market Action post here. The main reason is that Zuckerberg is a true chameleon—he adapts quickly and does whatever it takes to drive Facebook’s success. That’s the kind of leadership worth backing. Both Microsoft Corp. (Ticker: MSFT) and Meta are continuing to invest heavily in AI. So far, tariffs haven’t posed much of a barrier, and AI has clearly been a major catalyst for market gains over the past 2 years.
The S&P 500 Trust ETF (Ticker: SPY) just traded at a post-tariff high. However, the concern remains the VIX, which is still holding above 24. That keeps us in Zone 4—a level that continues to signal potential trouble.
We’re stuck in Zone 4 until there’s clarity on how the tariffs play out
Right now, Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) appear largely resistant to tariff pressures, while Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are more exposed. If Amazon and Apple can weather this period and provide solid forward guidance, we’re likely to see the VIX start dropping below 24.
10 day chart of META
Keep in mind, the major rally to 6200 was driven largely by AI. Two of the four stocks that benefited the most from AI are still pushing momentum forward. While AAPL and AMZN could potentially slow SPY’s rally after earnings, if their stocks hold steady, it would likely put downward pressure on the VIX.
The move from a VIX of 24 down to 18 will likely take 2 to 3 weeks, but with all the major tech earnings now behind us, it’ll be tough for the VIX to remain in Zone 4. Friday’s NFP report is already expected to disappoint, so we could see the VIX hit a weekly low by then.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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