Climbing to 5200

BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

February 28, 2024

Yo Pit Crazies,

 

The Trade Zone is off and running so go check it out.

 

What to trade?  It came up in my Easy Trade Button Class that realized volatility sets the tone for all of my trades.  Not investments, those are different things.  Trades are just a horse you saddle and ride for a while.  Investments are the barn you put the horse into and watch the value appreciate over time.

 

It’[s like looking over my track record for my Option Pit products, no giant winners but profitable with an eye toward minimizing the losers.  1 good trade can make up for 3 small bad ones, although my win loss record is a bit better than that.  You don’t want 1 bad one killing 3 winners.  If I keep with the Easy Trade Button example I size the trades so I keep the loss to less than $250.  It does not always happen like that and in fact since launch 7 of the 66 trades have been over but not by much.  That means I only need one win to cover the loss and on I go.  With 66 trades and 45 wins that adds up to green by keeping loss control tight.

 

The number 1 issue I have seen mentoring students is loss control.  12 years of mentoring 1 on 1 and that was the issue far and away.  I had some students where If I only took out 5-8 losses for a year they would be profitable.  5-8 loses out of 150-200 trades! What does this have to do with my post today and Ark Funds Innovation and Technology ETF (Ticker: ARKK).  Cathy Woods has created an impressive array of names, but not at great prices save Tesla Inc (Ticker: TSLA)

1 month chart for ARKK

The good thing about a closed end fund is that you get to buy the fund and get the current value prices, not what the fund manager paid for them.  This is the top 6 for ARKK.

Bitcoin is getting love to make a new run to all time highs and beyond.  Coinbase Inc (Ticker: COIN)

What does this have to do with the SPX going to 5200?

 

Let’s find out.

 

SPX needs some other stocks to lead

Whether you believe in crypto and Bitcoin only matters if you want to be an investor.  Traders just want momentum.  Since the new Bulge Bracket firms listed Bitcoin ETF’s, demand and momentum have surged.  ARKK will benefit from the surge in activity.  Coinbase Inc (Ticker:  COIN) might even get back to the purchase price.

 

With Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN) just treading water lately and Nvidia Corp (Ticker: NVDA) stuck at $800 other stocks need to get moving for a 5200 SPX.  If stocks like ARKK can get moving, 5200 is a lot easier to hit.  I bought some strangles, long call, long put, in ARKK today for the Easy Trade Button.

 

It’s just a trade, not an investment.

 

If you find my option jargon vexing, the OP Glossary is here.

To Your Trading Success,

 

-AG

Andrew Giovinazzi

30-Year Trading Pro

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Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

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About the Author

Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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