I’ve Seen This Movie Before
Hey Traders, I had déjà vu this week. But the powerful kind. The kind where something clicks and your whole frame of reference shifts. I was using AI combined with Bloomberg to run an analysis on the smoke coming from the private credit markets. Trying to figure out the potential for contagion, how big the […]
The Tools Just Showed Up
Hey Trader, Big day for the desk. The Bloomberg terminal is live. I cannot tell you how fired up I am right now! I’ve been writing about Treasury flags, scorecards and frameworks. All of that is part of my process. But that’s me working from memory and theory while waiting for the tools to show […]
Are Rising Rates a Dinner Bell or a Fire Alarm?
Dear Trader, Yesterday I told you the 10-year is heading to three percent or five percent, and I gave you two scorecards for rates moving lower. One where falling rates are a gift. One where they're a warning. Today you get the scorecards for rates moving higher. I'm putting these macro flashcards together for myself. […]
Wall Street’s 2026 Forecasts Are Career Protection, Not Analysis
Dear Trader, Goldman Sachs has their year-end 10-year forecast at 4.25 percent. JP Morgan says 4.35 percent. Morgan Stanley calls for a dip to 3.75 percent mid-year then a bounce back above four percent. Every major house is clustered in a fifty basis point range. And they're all wrong. Not because I'm smarter. Because they […]
The most important chart in finance is waving a flag
Dear Trader, Yesterday I told you the market writes the news before reporters do. The price action IS the story, and by the time CNBC explains what happened, the trade is already over. Today I want to show you the pattern that matters most right now. The one I've been watching for months while smoke […]
The Market Writes the News Before Reporters Do
Hey Trader, I'm sitting here staring at my screens and I'm frustrated. The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), just made an all-time high. Microsoft is sitting near a 52-week low. To put that in perspective, since September the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has gone nowhere while EEM is up 40%. That's not a blip. That's a […]