Yo Pit Crazies,

Below is a chart for 360-day realized volatility in the S&P 500. 

We are in the second highest average for realized volatility in the last decade. 

The market is moving … and moving a lot.

360 day realized volatility for the SPX

Will it be over this week?

Nov 2 Is the Big FOMC Event

There is ample speculation that the Fed will slow down the pace of rate rises to stabilize the bond markets in the short term

Rates are still going up, just not as fast. That is similar to how the Fed sees the rate of inflation.  Still here and too high, but the pace or rise is declining.

VIX closed like this on Friday:

In the chart above, Vol Man sees contango, for the first time since the market lost its mind over a month ago. This is where VIX cash is lower than all the futures … and generally this is a sign of LOWER VIX to come.

I still like the binary switch of a trade due to the Nov. 2 meeting.

Right now, that is short SPY and short VIX. like I am riding in SPYMaster.

If the Fed does as expected, 4000 SPX is easily in the cards

The Rundown

Capitol Gains

Bill and I closed our US Gold Trust strangle (Ticker: GLD)  for an 11% gain. We got  a move, just not a big one.

Option Shopper

Licia brought home the gold in GLD call spreads for 24% and Verizon Inc. (Ticker: VZ) calls for an 89% gain.

To Your Trading Success,

AG