BY GREG MAGADINI
February 17, 2024
Hello Traders,
This has been a monster week for Bitcoin prices as we move higher with explosive momentum.
When looking at ETF flows, we can see that the GBTC outflows have substantially subsided while other ETF providers are seeing stronger and stronger inflows.
Together this has brought BTC above $50k, currently around $52k as of this writing.
The next big event for BTC is the “halving” where Bitcoin mining rewards drop by 50%. This is a 50% reduction in BTC supply, which is produced with every block (about every 10 minutes).
This is supposed to occur in late April.
Looking at the June options expiration contract, we can see that implied volatility has shifted significantly higher week-over-week.
The call wing is also a bit steeper.
In terms of realized volatility however the 10-day and 30-day RV is slightly shy of the 50% volatility level. This is about 15pts below the June implied volatility.
This means the option market is paying a substantial premium for optionality compared to the current environment. We’d need to see a lot more explosive volatility for these levels to be justified.
It might just happen.
This is what I am seeing in the Bitcoin options and ETFs space at this time.
I will be bringing you more crypto levels, data and news absolutely free every week.
Talk soon,
-Greg Magadini
Greg Magadini
Director of Derivatives, Amberdata
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