Dear Trader,

Charlie here.

The S&P 500 just snapped a 214-session streak above its 200-day moving average. That is the line institutional money watches more than any other. When price sits above it, managers stay long. When it breaks below, risk desks start cutting.

This week, Licia Leslie is leaning into that breakdown with a bearish play on the index itself. But she is also watching an oil producer with rising crude prices at its back and a chart that says the move is not done yet.

One to hate. One to love. Here is what she is seeing:

Hi Traders,

I am going for it this week.

The Line Everyone Watches Just Broke

The one to buy puts in is the S&P 500.

We are in a downtrend and I believe we have another 140 points to move lower.

Here it is on my daily chart:

Since we closed below the 200-day moving average, which by the way everyone in the world watches, we have not been able to close above it. Remember: the close is always more important than the intraday action.

We have traded above this level during the intraday session, but we have not been able to close above it. That is telling.

My price target is $5,444.50 on the futures by April 15th. Use a close over the 200-day moving average as your stop loss with a trailing stop loss as we move lower.

The S&P 500 tracks the 500 biggest public companies in the U.S. It is the scoreboard Wall Street watches when they want to know how the market is doing. When these heavyweights break down, everything else tends to follow.

Crude Is Climbing and So Is This Name

My stock to purchase calls in is Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

Here is the chart:

It is in a major league uptrend which will continue to $64.72 and then $71.18.

I know the relative strength index (RSI, a momentum indicator that tells you whether buyers or sellers are in control) is in overbought territory, but it can stay there for as long as it wants. When it moves back below 70, that is your sell signal.

OXY is one of the biggest oil and gas producers in the country. They are a Permian Basin heavyweight, which is the most productive oil field in America. They just sold off their chemical division for $5.8 billion and used it to slash debt, which means more cash flow going straight to shareholders. With crude prices climbing on Middle East tensions, OXY is in the right place at the right time.

Trade accordingly, take your money and stay nimble.

Licia Leslie

That is the rundown from Licia this week.

A broken 200-day moving average on the S&P and a stock riding crude oil higher. Two trades, two directions, two different bets on what happens next.

The question is, will either be the Play of the Week?

Find out as a member of the Ticker Highlight Show Premium. The new option play hits Monday at 10:30.

Tap this link to become a member and get tomorrow's option play.

See you there,

Charles Delvalle