A CPI Number Like No Other
Yo, Pit Crazies, The last CPI number took the market by surprise. The day before the number, VIX was 23 on its way lower. By the end of day on Sept. 13, VIX crossed 28 and barely saw below that for a month. VIX one-month chart with one-minute candles. What do the VIX tea leaves […]
Interest Rates are Telling THE Story
Hey There Income Hunter, Repeatable profits and consistently winning trades ARE possible today. But only if you understand the bond markets’ role in fiscal and monetary policy and its impact on the economy and capital markets. This fact may be understood much better by Vladimir Putin than the Western media and even our own policymakers. […]
Investing in America is Back!
Hey There Income Hunter, America got hit with a major wake-up call in 2020, and it was more than just Covid. 2020 was also the year China came very close to surpassing the US in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). According to data from the UN, China actually came within $2 billion of taking over […]
Option Gamma Battle at 3800 Feet
Hey There Income Hunter, Yesterday’s S&P 500 failure at 3800 shows how important it is to understand and follow the delta-hedged option positioning and changes to the gamma risk those positions create. 3800 is the current level – or pivot – where the net gamma among all strikes for options expiring at the next monthly […]
A JOLT for the Fed
Hey There Income Hunter, Who would have ever thought that the Jobs Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) would boost the market the way it did this week. However, when the jobs market is the only thing keeping Powell’s foot on the brakes of monetary policy, it warrants such attention. On Tuesday, JOLTS reported by […]
Homebodies Are Crushing Real Estate
Hey There Income Hunter, I spent 25 years working on Wall Street while living on Long Island. I had a 35-minute ride on the Long Island Railroad to Penn Station, followed by a 20-minute battle on the subway. I got used to it after a while, but today’s generation … not so much. Now add […]
UK & EU Saving Debt at All Costs
Hey There Income Hunter, I frequently talk about debt since policymakers and the media refuse to mention it. The reason why debt is never mentioned is this: Debt is the lifeblood of fiat (paper) currency. Governments spend and issue debt that is backed by faith and trust in their ability to pay you interest plus […]
Did the UK Just Trigger Hyper-Inflation?
Hey There Income Hunter, Early yesterday morning, British prime minister Liz Truss announced she would not reverse her decision to cut taxes to stimulate the economy while the Bank of England (BOE) deploys QE to buy the debt that must be issued to pay for the tax cuts. Truss really doesn’t have any choice, and […]
Credit Spread Blowout
What a wild ride this week. First, we had the spike higher on the headlines that the UK deployed QE to add liquidity to the bond market. This is an old narrative that the market relied on for the past dozen years. Central bank printing is always a shot of steroids to asset prices. The […]
Pendulum Swings Back towards Pivot
Four percent 10-year rates and a UK pivot back to QE lit a fire under the markets today … As always it started with bonds and interest rates have been on a wild ride … Check out today’s move along the yield curve … The 5-year had the most significant drop today at […]